"The best way to predict the future is to create it." --Peter Drucker (1909 – 2005).
Drucker was an Austrian-born American management consultant, educator, and author, whose writings contributed to the philosophical and practical foundations of the modern business corporation.
I would add that human creativity never sleeps, and our knowledge base grows exponentially. And while we have always had the potential to create any number of nasty things (think nuclear bombs, a warming planet, etc.), we also have an innate ability to create things that have improved our lives (think the invention of the wheel, autos, computers, etc.)
Amidst the ever prevalent news of war, genocide, rising seas and the like, we need to remember how far homo sapiens has advanced since we ventured out of our caves aeons ago.
In that vein, consider Steven Pinker's (A respected linguist and cognitive scientist) new book "Enlightenment Now: The Case for Reason, Science, Humanism, and Progress" (which Bill Gates says is "My new favorite book of all time"). Pinker reiterates some well documented facts that need repeating, to wit: The world is about 100 times wealthier than 200 years ago. The share of people killed annually in wars is 25 percent less than during the 1980s and half a percent of the recorded deaths in the second world war. During the last century, Americans became 9 percent less likely to die in a car crash, 92 percent less likely to perish in a fire and 9 percent less likely to die at work. And few would deny that we are living longer and healthier lives.
Let me paint you a picture of how wonderful the world is right now and will be in five, ten and twenty years out. For real. No wild schemes or fantasies here, just the facts.
Smart Cities
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| Songdo, South Korea |
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| River and Pavillion |
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| Typical Apartment |
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| Central Control of All Functions of City |
Songdo is the first "smart city" built from the ground up in a span of only ten years. Not for long however, as there are plans to build more in Niger, India and China. Bill Gates has invested $80 million into a planned smart city based outside Phoenix, Arizona, according to local news publication AZ Central. The 24,800-acre development plan is for 80,000 homes to be built, with 3,800 acres reserved for industrial, office, and retail space, 3,400 acres of open space, and 470 acres dedicated for public schools. Dozens of American cities are retrofitting their systems to utilize the new technology also.
Cities around the world will invest a total of about $41 trillion over the next 20 years to upgrade their infrastructure and benefit from the network of connected devices known as the Internet of Things, experts at the Smart America Challenge forecast.
Analysts estimates on the urban innovation trend are eye-popping — but right now it's as much for how greatly they vary as for how big the market may ultimately grow to be. Some analysts peg the smart-cities market to be worth about $27.5 billion annually by 2023, while others say the market could reach as much as $757 billion by 2020. (Source: CNBC.com 28 Oct 2016)
Here are some features of Songdo life:
- All garbage is segregated into organic and combustible waste. At the collection point, there are other bins for glass and plastic and other sorts of refuse. Sensors determine if the trash has been properly separated and is then sucked through high pressure underground pipe systems from a central station to recycle centers. Some unnamed portions are burnt for fuel.
- There are also bike paths and indoor parking spaces. Despite prohibitions, residents grow vegetables on the undeveloped land. 40 percent of the city is park space—one of the highest percentages in the world.
- The automobile is king, especially electric vehicles. The city has deployed charging stations for them.
- A bridge spanning more than 13 miles connects the Incheon international airport to Songdo, which serves as an Asian hub for multinational companies.
- Four international universities have established a campus here. Some say it has the best schools in Korea — they are certainly the newest. In the interior courtyards of the high-rise clusters, there are playgrounds and fitness stations, benches and plant-lined pools.
- Songdo has a “telepresence” system; a joint venture by Cisco and the developers of the city. Residents use custom TV screens to chat with say, English tutors in Hawaii or fitness classes from instructors. While the video-chatting is not a great leap from Skype—its integration into televisions and the subscription-oriented menu of classes is new technology.
- Cisco’s Global Innovation Lab maintains a tech center that is working on technologies-in-development, including mobile phone-controlled home appliances and even micro-chip tracking of Songdo’s children—so they don’t get lost. (Chips would be implanted in children's bracelets.)
You can already use the internet for all manner of medical needs. Communications via direct consultation on hospital and doctor's web sites are common now. Video taping is often available whenever you choose to engage on Skype. These days there are a growing number of over the counter tests one can purchase for medical conditions such as Strep, diabetes, urinary tract infection, allergies, cholesterol, blood pressure, HIV, Colorectal cancer, kidney screening and thyroid function. And my research indicates that the list is guaranteed to grow at a quick pace.
But here is the breaking news on a larger scale: In the last two months, virtually every news outlet in America reported on a paradigm shift in medical care. Some wags have taken to calling the system "Doctor You" because it increases the role of patients in managing their health.
On January 24th, Apple laid out its plans to ask organisations to let patients use their smartphones to download their own medical records. And on February 1, three of the biggest names in American business—Amazon, Berkshire Hathaway and JPMorgan Chase—announced a new venture to provide better, cheaper health care for their employees. These pioneering initiatives can be summarized in four ways, as set forth in The Economist Magazine on Feb. 1.
One is better diagnosis. "Someone worried about their heart can now buy a watch strap [with] ... a medical-grade monitor that will detect arrhythmias. Apps are vying to see if they can diagnose everything from skin cancer and concussion to Parkinson’s disease. Research is under way to see whether sweat can be analysed for molecular biomarkers without the need for an invasive blood test."
A second "...benefit lies in managing] complex diseases. Diabetes apps can change the way patients cope, by monitoring..."glucose levels and food intake, potentially reducing long-run harm such as blindness and gangrene. Akili Interactive, a startup, plans to seek regulatory approval for a video game designed to stimulate an area of the brain implicated in attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder."
Thirdly, "...patients can also improve the efficiency of their care.
Although health records are increasingly electronic, they are often still trapped in silos. Many contain data that machines cannot read, [leading] to delays in treatment...Many of the 250,000 deaths in America attributable to medical error each year can be traced to poorly coordinated care. With data at their fingertips, common standards to enable sharing and a strong incentive to get things right, patients are more likely to spot errors."
A final gain-- "... putting patients in charge stems from the generation and aggregation of their data. Artificial intelligence (AI) is already being trained by a unit of Alphabet, Google’s parent company, to identify cancerous tissues and retinal damage. As patients’ data stream from smartphones and 'wearables', they will teach AIs to do ever more. [Some possible outcomes:] ...providing automated medical diagnosis from a description of your symptoms, spotting behavioural traits that [indicate depression] ...or identify if you are at special risk of cardiac disease. The combined data bases will also make it easier for you to find [others] with similar diseases and to see how they responded to various treatments."
Communications via direct consultation on hospital and doctors websites are universal now. Video taping is often available whenever you choose on Skype. These days there are a growing number of over the counter tests one can purchase for medical conditions such as Strep, diabetes, urinary tract infection, allergies, cholesterol, blood pressure, HIV, Colorectal cancer, kidney screening and thyroid function, and that list is guaranteed to grow at a quick pace.
A review of the efforts of other countries in this arena shows that Sweden is the leader in opening up their medical records. It seeks to allow all citizens electronic access to their records by 2020.
Further, they note that over a third of Swedes have already signed up. America and Canada have a few trials in place, but preliminary results indicate happier patients and lower costs due to a drop in phone and email questions to clinics and hospitals.
Scientific Advances in Farming: Increasing New and Safer Food Sources While Cleaning the Environment.
Here are are a few highlights about life on the farm and what's for dinner: ed. note: All aspects of new farming is detailed in my post "Secret Weapon Revealed On Farms"--Sept. 5, 2017 in my blog archive on right side of this page.
Message received by farmers from Silicon Valley: "There's an app for that."
Believe it--meatless meat. Check out this before you go shopping
A review of the efforts of other countries in this arena shows that Sweden is the leader in opening up their medical records. It seeks to allow all citizens electronic access to their records by 2020.
Further, they note that over a third of Swedes have already signed up. America and Canada have a few trials in place, but preliminary results indicate happier patients and lower costs due to a drop in phone and email questions to clinics and hospitals.
Scientific Advances in Farming: Increasing New and Safer Food Sources While Cleaning the Environment.
Here are are a few highlights about life on the farm and what's for dinner: ed. note: All aspects of new farming is detailed in my post "Secret Weapon Revealed On Farms"--Sept. 5, 2017 in my blog archive on right side of this page.
Message received by farmers from Silicon Valley: "There's an app for that."
- Silicon Valley saw the potential to disrupt farming bout disrupt farming about 10 years ago and consequently, farmers have improved their yields, cut their operational costs as well as using much less water. Now drones are flying over their fields, looking for any problems. A stream of precision weather data is available 24/7, while a handheld pathogen detection system sets off alerts for diseases in the field in a matter of minutes. The modern farm is hooked up to a massive outdoor wireless network to insure that the land is never left unmonitored. The farmer can control everything from the comfort of the couch or from the tractor(s).
- I was raised on a farm and I remember mucking out the barn by wheeling out endless wheelbarrows full of wet cow dung to a steep plywood slide which dumped the stuff on the big garden plot below. But the odor still hung in the barn like a acrid cloud.
- Now, according to a report in The Economist magazine in November, a solution is at hand. Under the direction of Jacek Koziel of Iowa State University. a combination of titanium dioxide and ultraviolet light is clearing the air inside barns, stables,etc. It is done by painting a large area with titanium dioxide, which is as cheap as standard paints, and then turn on equally inexpensive, conventional fluorescent black lights and voila'! Let the barn dance begin!
Believe it--meatless meat. Check out this before you go shopping
- That report from Fast Company is nothing short of world shaking news; there is an ongoing explosion in the creation of meatless protein. As of last December, agreements have been signed with many of the largest producers of poultry and beef in the world with supermarkets and restaurants eager for plant based food alternatives.
- "When the meatpacking giant Cargill sold off its last cattle feedlots in April, it said that it wanted to free up funds to invest in alternatives like insects and plant-based protein. Four months later, along with Bill Gates and Richard Branson, the company joined a $17m round of investments in Memphis Meats, a startup that grows beef and chicken from cells instead of on farms.
- "Tyson Foods, the largest meat producer in the U.S. was part of a $55 million round of investment in Beyond Meat. Roughly, a year after it started selling its meat like burgers in mainstream grocery stores. Beyond Meat's products are now in 19,000 stores and growing rapidly.
- Nestle has acquired Sweet Earth Foods, which sells products like 'Harmless Ham' and 'Benevolent Bacon.' Maple Leaf Foods, a Canadian company known for selling Kam and Klik–the Canadian versions of Spam–along with deli meat, pork, poultry, and other meats, acquired Lightlife, [which]...makes products like “Chick’n” and plant-based hot dogs, and [has acquired]...Field Roast, which makes both plant-based meat and dairy-free cheese. Major meat processors are reportedly in talks to license Hampton Creek’s technology for 'clean' meat [which is grown from animal cells]. Unilever invested in university research to recreate the texture of steak. Walmart has asked [for]more meat-free products." And here's proof of the huge impact in Europe Click here.
Ugly fruits and veggies find love.
- I can find few hard statistics about how much unwanted fruits and vegetables currently get tossed because they are visually imperfect. But many in the industry in the past have reported a 20 percent loss on their books. It is common knowledge that most of the produce ends up in a landfill, animal-feed or compost.
- That is changing big time. I found two companies, Imperfect produce and Hungry Harvest which now provide boxes of subpar stuff directly to retail customers for about 60% less than the local market. In December, a new iPhone app, goMkt, is a startup that alerts retail buyers to flash sales of surplus produce in local markets and restaurants. Ain't love grand?
Nasty mussels to the rescue.
- Some excerpts from The Economist in December: "SHELLFISH thrive in waters rich in nutrients [including] ...nitrogen used in fertiliser, which [flows eventually] into the sea. The shellfish grow, [and are harvested [for] profit..."
- "The problem comes when discharges...are tainted with noxious material, such as bacteria that pose a threat to human health...This problem—and another, of excess nitrogen that can cause poisonous algal blooms—might be mitigated by shellfish that people don’t eat, reckon Eve Galimany and Julie Rose at the [NOAA] Administration... in Connecticut. ...Their chosen candidate...is the ribbed mussel [which] is edible, but it tastes terrible."
- "The mussel is both hardy and adept at collecting a range of troublesome materials from its environment. [The researchers] ...thought it would be ideal to help clean up the Bronx River Estuary in New York [which] has a long history of suffering from harmful bacteria and high levels of nitrogen."
- "With a group of colleagues they moored a 64 square foot... mussel-growing raft...and populated it with the mussels. They...monitored the...mussels over six months and...analysed the chemistry of the water both before and after the mussels had done their filtering. The results were impressive." [They] found that not only did the mussels thrive in the polluted waters of the Bronx River Estuary, but they also collected a lot of pollutants. ... a raft of mussels cleared an average of 12m quarts of water daily, removing 352 lbs of particulate matter, of which 27 lbs was absorbed by the mussels’ digestive systems...The remainder was excreted as waste [and] was ultimately buried in the river sediment. The material filtered out...included nitrogen, bacteria, relatively harmless trace metals like aluminium, copper and iron, as well as toxic metals like mercury, lead and arsenic....But what can be done with the mussels once harvested? The researchers hope they can be treated and recycled...Provided the levels of contaminants are not too high, [they] could be used as animal feed or fertiliser."
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| Dinner in Asia |
These days some 1,900 edible insect species are being consumed worldwide, mainly in Africa, Mexico and Asia, for example, the silk worm and cricket . But also in Italy and Greece insects are on the menu in some typical local dishes, such as “casu marzu” from Sardinia, Italy.
Apparently, the use of edible insects as sources for food has become widespread, both in non-Western and Western cultures.
In The Netherlands, for instance, an insect cooking book has been published lately and edible insects for human consumption have been available in shops since January 2008.
Don't get all queasy on me now, dear readers, but I have eaten cicadas, sea stars, sea horses, locusts, silkworms, snake, lizard, and crickets. The latter, eaten in Washington D.C., was a tasty fried cricket entree, served on a bed of greens and a side of sticky rice. The crickets were crunchy and tasted like hot and spicy bacon bits. (Great with beer, but way too spendy.) The others were eaten in The Philippines, Okinawa, Vietnam and Mexico-- often deep fried and served on a stick. My point here is to just try some of these foods, you may very surprised how tasty and filling they can be.
More importantly, there will be 10 billion people on our planet within 20 years or less, according to dozens of experts. So the global demand for animal protein will continue to increase in the coming years. In order to meet this growing demand and to move towards sustainable nutrition, insects appear to be a good alternative to traditionally produced animal protein, especially if you don't have enough land to support hooved creatures.
YOUR ROBOT IS HERE
Robots of all kinds are becoming available for your home at Target, Amazon, dozens of commercial web sites, even Walmart (who is now using them to stock shelves in 50 stores). I ran through numerous best of robots lists for 2017. Here's my pick of the crop:
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| Aibo |
Aibo was originally introduced in 1999 as a toy dog. The new version is way smarter. It plays, is expressive, responds to voice commands, and develops a unique personality it learns from its owners.
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| Aeolus |
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| Walker |
Buddy is a smart in-home assistant that can control internet-of-things devices, act as a walking talking calendar, and even be a smart alarm clock or security guard. The robot can help the family with daily tasks, entertain the children, and interact with other smart connected devices in the home.
And then there are the also rans, which I find clever, laughable and destined for those who are even lazier than I am.
Grillbot The $130 Grillbot works like a miniature Roomba, with metal bristles. On a hot or cold grill, start the bot, close the lid and 10 to 30 minutes later, the grate is clean enough to cook on. Forgetful types will appreciate the device’s alarm, which sounds when the bot is left in a hot grill for too long.
Scooba 450 No company has done more to popularize home robotics than iRobot, the maker of the Roomba vacuum, the Looj gutter cleaner, the Mirra pool cleaner and, this year, the Scooba 450 floor scrubber. The $600 device soaks the floor, spreads cleaner and scrubs and vacuums the dirty water before a final pass with a squeegee.
Robomow RS I kid you not. For about $1400 or so, this one will mow your lawn. The only catch, albeit a minor one, is that you must first map out your yard with wires to define the gadget's boundaries. Once that’s done, though, the bot cuts as often as you like and returns to its charging dock when low on power. It’s electric, so noise is less of a problem than with conventional mowers.
Droplet For $300, Droplet will reliably water your garden while you sip a cold one. Set the sprinkler in place, program the system on a computer or mobile device and connect it to your home’s Wi-Fi router, and the system takes over from there. It checks weather data and points the sprinkler to specific pockets of your garden to deliver water where and when it’s needed. With a range of 30 feet in all directions, the units can manage bigger gardens and entire swaths of lawn with less wasted water.
Five Must Have Consumer Products From the Consumer Electronic Show 2018
The Wall is a seriously impressive TV. It’s got a 146 inch screen, but more than that, it can connect to
other Walls to make an even bigger um... Wall. Its display utilizes millions
of MicroLED pixels, each of which can be turned on or off individually,
producing jaw-dropping image quality. Soon to be released, no price given, but I assume buyers for this don't have to ask.
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