Ford was, of course, the genius largely responsible for transforming the way people traveled and also was a major contributor to the birth of the industrial revolution. He probably knew that his new industry would grow but I doubt he realized just how massive it would become when the first "Tin Lizzy" rolled out of Detroit over 100 years ago.
Electric cars were available in his day (some electrics even won land speed records) but then, as now, the internal combustion engine has ruled the roads. But the gas guzzlers are beginning to slowly fade away, replaced by alternate power sources such as lithium batteries and hydrogen.
And just how much change the future holds for transportation is perhaps summed up best by Henry's great-grandson, Bill Ford, Chairman of Ford Motor Co. click here In a wide ranging Wall St. Journal article 3 years ago, he said, "During the past decade, the automotive industry emerged from one of the most challenging periods we have ever encountered, and has now entered one of the most exciting and promising times in our history." He is also well aware of the dramatic changes forecast by such august bodies as the United Nations, NASA and the World Health Organization when he said, "With a growing global population and greater prosperity, the number of vehicles on the road could exceed two billion by mid-century...and with...54% of the global population [living] in cities by 2050...it becomes clear that our current transportation model is not sustainable. Our infrastructure cannot support such a large volume of vehicles without creating massive congestion that would have serious consequences for our environment, health, economic progress and quality of life. It is already apparent automakers are going to have a portfolio of vehicles: the internal combustion engine (ICE), plug-in hybrids, battery electrics and fuel cell electrics. We already see that happening right now."
Boy howdy! Ford is right. Suddenly, it seems that everyone is very busy—from garage mechanics to major automakers, as well as high-tech giants like Google, Intel and Apple, in a multi-billion dollar race to create nothing less than a revolution in how and what people drive. In fact, I believe we are witnessing a growing love affair with Silicon Valley and Detroit as well as their cohorts world wide.
Cars will need to be smarter in order to connect with all forms of transportation as well as the internet of everything. Like the ubiquitous cell phone which allows us to purchase nearly everything we want as well as talk to virtually anyone at will, cars will also become an extension of ourselves. Along with the technology available now, such as hands-free phone calls, soon, according to Wired Magazine , we will control the entertainment, climate and navigation systems using [our] voice. The magazine said, "That’s really just the beginning...technology will let you remotely start your vehicle, unlock the doors, check the fuel level, and much more from your smartphone." Other possibilities? You will be able to "monitor your vital signs by linking up to a fitness band...if the car detects you’re nodding off, the vehicle can react automatically. Or, if your fitness band detects an increase in heart rate, adaptive cruise control may kick in and give you more breathing room from the car ahead of you."
For now, however, let us examine the present state of autos. My last posting chronicled the slowly dying ICE as well as the rise of electrics and hybrid vehicles. As promised, this report will focus on driverless and hydrogen cars (also referred to as fuel cell electrics (FCE).
Driverless Cars
The best analysis I have seen of driverless cars was on the pages of The New York Times last June, seen here . Their technical description of how the hardware and software works to re-create the "Look Ma, no hands!" freedom, however brief, that we experienced on the bicycles of our youth, is well worth the read. However, I prefer to focus on what auto companies, hi-tech industries and auto suppliers are doing to hasten the time when I can kick back in my "wheels" and enjoy a meal or read a novel in the middle of the Antelope Valley Freeway.
Some early features in driverless technology are already becoming common (think collision avoidance, drift warning, self parking, etc.). Numerous YouTube videos and TV shows have provided views of spendy, driverless vehicles performing well on broad highways with minor human interference. But the real test, of course, will be to overcome the wacky complexity of driving in cities and suburbs. The new technologies promise to copy the best of what human drivers can do -- quick responses in rapidly changing environments -- without our fatal flaws such as driving while fiddling with our phones or sliding behind the wheel drunk or stoned.
While it is hard to find any car makers who haven't participated in the race for autonomous vehicles, only a relative few are leading the charge. The Times report noted the following: (1) GM will test self-driving taxis on "public roads" next year. (2) Ford will have "a fully autonomous vehicle in commercial operation for a ride-hailing service by 2021". (3) Tesla, the popular battery powered car company, "is busy testing autonomous software." (4) Fiat Chrysler "has reached a deal with Alphabet (Google's parent company) to provide driverless technology." (5) Honda is building prototypes for what they describe as an "emotion engine which will learn from what [drivers] do behind the wheel..."
Uber, the ride-hailing giant, has already employed a fleet of self-driving driving sedans in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania for a year. There is a company driver to monitor the ride in the front seat, while passengers can watch the action with a computer in the back seat. You can see the video here. Uber says "they will now allow for a single operator in each car...single operator rides will will be rolled out at the end of this year and into 2018, which will allow for three riders instead of just two."
According to several newspapers, car magazines and official city data records in Pittsburgh and Tempe, Arizona (which has a similar pilot program, launched months after Pittsburgh), the company's semi-autonomous cars have logged more than 1 million miles since the pilot programs began. Their record is less than stellar, however, as Pittsburgh has complained about the stingy benefits to city employment while a rollover accident involving an Uber self-driving car (with a driver) occurred in Tempe in March (police cited the driver in a standard car; no one was injured).
Two days ago Baidu (click here) , a Chinese internet company, reported plans to test their own autonomous technology in vehicles from three domestic automakers, hoping to release cars commercially "next year".
So how does the general public feel about driverless cars?The technology is very new and the public seems to have a wait and see attitude. A report on driverless car support in England may well mirror the opinions of other countries. On a positive note, 63% feel positive about driverless cars on their roads and 59% agree that the roads would be safer with these new cars,
However, 66% said, "...they would not be happy to have their children travel in a driverless car while 55% stated that they would not themselves feel safe. 71% indicated that elderly and disabled folks would be more free to move about and some 70% of those polled felt that driverless cars "have the potential to deliver economic benefits."
So, it appears that people are a bit conflicted with the value of autonomous cars. As they become more prevalent, opinions will likely become more positive, but the challenge for the auto industry is that it has to prepare for the market of the future while serving the customers of today. Not incidentally, self-driving cars will also hasten a change in how people buy and own cars. If your car can drive without you, why have it sitting there parked all day while you're at work? Car-sharing will seem only logical. In fact, according to Wikipedia, car sharing services are available in over 1,000 cities in several countries.
Hydrogen Vehicles
Wikipedia defines a hydrogen vehicle as "one that uses hydrogen as its on board fuel for power. The power plants of such vehicles convert the chemical energy of hydrogen to mechanical energy either by burning hydrogen in an internal combustion engine (ICE), or by reacting hydrogen with oxygen in a fuel cell to run electric motors."
Scientists have long described hydrogen fuel as a clean energy source, producing water vapor as the only emission. Researchers have tried using renewable sources to make it, but the available literature rejects the process currently because it is too expensive. My research found that only natural gas is used as the current source for hydrogen production which, says
Wikipedia, is one of the drawbacks of hydrogen use because of "the high carbon emissions intensity when produced from natural gas."
Wikipedia's entry (click here) said "as of 2016, there are 3 hydrogen cars publicly available in select markets; the Toyota Mirai, the Hyundai ix35 FCEV, and the Honda Clarity.
Toyota launched its first production fuel cell vehicle, the Mirai, in Japan at the end of 2014 and began sales in California, mainly the Los Angeles area, in 2015. The car has a range of 312 miles and takes about five minutes to refill its hydrogen tank. The initial sale price in Japan was about $69,000). In 2013 BMW leased hydrogen technology from Toyota, and a group formed by Ford, Daimler AG and Nissan announced a collaboration on hydrogen technology development. By 2017, however, Daimler had abandoned hydrogen vehicle development, and most of the automobile companies developing hydrogen cars had switched their focus to battery electric vehicles."
In summary, fossil fueled cars will dominate the scene for some time (no one knows precisely how long), but the largest obstacle remaining is infrastructure, for both hydrogen and battery electrics. Hydrogen fuel requires special filling pumps which are rare or non-existent in all nations.
The availability of electric charging stations depends on where you look. According to China's People's Daily newspaper the nation will soon have a network of 167,000 charging stations. In the US, click here there are few such stations outside of major cities, and every state is embroiled in a huge argument over who will pay for them. While officials in California approved plans for utilities to build more than 12,500 charging stations last year, similar efforts in Michigan, Missouri, and Kansas have all died.
Flying Cars
I can hear your giggles from here, dear readers, but I found a dozen startups that have jumped into a flying car competition; most have real venture capital , prototypes and strong marketing strategies. Here are a few:
Starting price:$1.2 million, Reservations for 2020 delivery.
Size / Capacity / Weight
- Automotive Dimensions – 19.5 feet (L), 7 ft. (W), 5 ft (H)
- Aerospace Dimensions – 19 ft (L), 29 ft (W)
- 4.5 ft (H)
- Max Take Off Weight – 2112 lbs
Power
AeroMobil custom 2.0 l turbo charged 4-cylinder boxer ICE.
Dedicated electric front wheel drive system incorporating electronic differential.
Automotive Power – (110 HP) via twin E Motors
- Aerospace Power – (300 HP) via Turbo charged (Euro 6)
- Automotive Range 434 miles, flight cruise range is 465 miles
- Fuel Capacity 24 gallons
- Performance: Automotive-Top speed 99 mph, 0-60 in 10 MTOW Take Off Distance ground roll / 50 ft – 397 /1,951 ft
 |
| PAL-V |
Economic cruise speed: 87 mph, high cruise: 100
Maximum speed: 112 mph
Engine power: 200 hp
Maximum operating altitude: 11,480 feet
Useful load: 542 lbs
Take-off roll: 590 feet
Landing roll distance: 98 feet
Fuel economy: 6.9 gallons/hour
Range w/ ½ hour reserve fuel,1 person-310 mi
Starting at $400.000
DRIVE MODE
Max Speed: 100mph ½ hour reserve fuel is 62-93 miles left for driving 100 hp engine 0-62 mph in 9 2 persons
31 mpg Maximum Take-Off Weight : 2,006 lbs
Fuel capacity: 26.4 gallon Maximum baggage load: 44 pounds Range 817 miles
Three-wheeled Dutch gyrocopter motorcycle that transforms in 10 minutes, lifting off vertically. Requires a sports pilot certificate to fly it. Opened a flight school in Utah last year.
Here's my take: the future will unfold with a quickly growing acceptance and purchase of hybrids and all-electric cars. Hydrogen power will become a primary energy source for industry and cities, but not in autos. The automobile remains a very liberating and flexible means of transportation. It allows us to move around freely and independently, and it can and will be a sustainable and safe way to travel, but we are choking with pollution from gas-mobiles--they have to go, ASAP.
Driverless cars will take years to become a common sight, but the technology already exists to build them and people like the concept. So if we find the will and the billions necessary for a massive change in laws and infrastructure, by 2050 or so we may have little to do as we whiz around except entertain ourselves or take a nap.
In many cities, a vastly improved public transportation system will probably be the best way to get around. On demand systems will be used by many others (think ride sharing and Uber on a grander scale) while many folks will simply enter their trip and payment info into an automated taxi system.
Who knows? Perhaps cities may become so livable, people will return to the basics--walking or riding a bike.