Wednesday, May 15, 2019
Neon Leon: ABOUT THOSE FLASHING RED LIGHTS...
Neon Leon: ABOUT THOSE FLASHING RED LIGHTS...: Coal is not a renewable resource, however.
ABOUT THOSE FLASHING RED LIGHTS...
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| Coal is not a renewable resource, however. |
"Even those who don't believe in climate change believe we should develop renewable energy. Americans get it: it's time. This is not controversial. It's actually right in the wheelhouse of American business" --Marshall Herskovitz
Herskovitz, 67, is currently the President Emeritus of the Producers Guild of America. He serves on the advisory board of The Climate Mobilization, an advocacy group calling for a national economic mobilization against climate change on the scale of the home front during World War II, with the goal of 100% clean energy and net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2025.
I agree with his concept of massive mobilization, especially his embrace of American business. I will deal with that shortly. ed. note: Check out my blog archives for info on the world wide deterioration of our supplies of water and food as well as air quality.
I continue on that path today, by analyzing the current capacity of alternative and renewable sources to replace fossil fuels.
Renewable energy comes from a source that is naturally occurring and replenishes naturally without human intervention. Examples include biomass resources, solar energy, wind energy, geothermal and hydro resources, while alternative energy includes resources like natural gas, fuel cells or any waste energy that does not naturally replenish but emits lower carbon emissions.
First, however, an update on what's happening to our planet seems appropriate, given the stubborn resistance of climate change deniers, to wit:
One million plant and animals species are on the verge of extinction, with alarming implications for human survival, according to a United Nations report released on May 6.
According to The Washington Post:
"The landmark report...from universities across the world goes further than previous studies by directly linking the loss of species to human activity [and] shows how those losses are undermining food and water security, as well as human health."
"More plants and animals are threatened with extinction now than any other period in human history, it concludes. Nature’s current rate of decline is unparalleled, and the accelerating rate of extinctions 'means grave impacts on people around the world are now likely,' the report said."
"Robert Watson, a British chemist who served as the panel’s chairman, said the decline in biodiversity is eroding 'the foundations of our economies, livelihoods, food security, health and quality of life worldwide.' "
" 'Once you get to basically 2 degrees Celsius [35 degrees fahrenheit], the models show that only 1 percent can survive,' Watson said. 'Let’s be quite candid. We’re not on the pathway to 2 degrees Celsius. We’re on a pathway to 3, 3 ½ degrees Celsius.' "
" 'If we are able to decrease CO2 emissions to zero by 2080, we might avoid 2 degrees Celsius of global temperature increase, but would pass 1.5 degrees Celsius before the year 2040. To actually avoid 1.5 degrees Celsius altogether, CO2 emissions from both fossil fuels and deforestation would need to be eliminated by the year 2050.' "
Here's another red blinking light from The Post:
The headline on May 3 reads As seas rise, Indonesia is moving its capital city. Other cities should take note.
The article by John Englander, president of the International Sea Level Institute is a stunner.
Some excerpts: "The decision [to move Jakarta] validates decades of warnings about the city’s catastrophic flood risk due to sinking land and rising seas."
"While Jakarta is especially vulnerable...to rising seas, it serves as a profound wake-up call for hundreds of major cities, Washington included."
"Indonesian President Widodo said 'the move is necessary, [as] the city can no longer support its massive population in the face of environmental threats...concerns of traffic congestion and water shortages' ...the city is sinking, a phenomenon known as subsidence. In the past 30 years, Jakarta sank more than 10 feet — a problem made only worse as the world’s great ice sheets melt."
"Jakarta is... by no means unique. In the USA major cities such as New Orleans and Norfolk are also subsiding, though not nearly as fast. Even still, all coastal cities must face...the reality of rising seas. There is no time to waste in planning and adapting to this threat."
"Although Miami is often cited as the city most at risk, there are many highly vulnerable — and highly populous — cities around the world, including Mumbai and Calcutta, India; Shanghai; Lagos, Nigeria; Manila; Dhaka, Bangladesh; Bangkok; Copenhagen; Tokyo; London; Houston; and Tampa...[these cites] already experience increased flooding during extreme high tides, often referred to as 'king tides.' "
"The latest projections for average global sea-level rise this century range from about three feet to as much as eight. [To lower]... that range largely depends on [reducing] greenhouse gases far beyond current efforts. But even a one-foot rise in sea level can dramatically increase coastal flooding. Hundreds of millions of people and trillions of dollars of assets are at risk."
"... the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers recently announced that...rising seas and subsidence will render the $14 billion fix to New Orleans levees inadequate in just four years. Clearly, we need a new strategy, too."
" [The reduction of] carbon emissions could avert the worst scenarios, but sea-level rise probably cannot be stopped this century. The planet has already warmed almost 2 degrees Fahrenheit, which means ice sheets and glaciers will continue to melt for centuries."
Before you start quivering in fear or hiding under your bed, let me lift your spirits with the increasing levels of success in harnessing the power of renewable and alternative energies.
First, the 2018 report by The International Energy Agency:
"Of the the share of electricity from low-carbon technologies – including renewables, nuclear and carbon capture and storage -- around one third (35%) of generation came from low-carbon sources in 2017, with the share of renewables reaching 25% and nuclear declining to 10%. In the Sustainability Development Scenario (SDS), the share of generation from low-carbon technologies should increase to nearly two-thirds (63%) in 2030, with wind and solar PV accounting for over 50% of this growth."
"Carbon Capture Utilization and Storage (CCUS) starts being deployed in the late 2020s and accounts for almost 4% of new additions in the period to 2040 with 5% of new generation."
Second, The 2018 Global Status Report (GSR) by Ren 21 noted the following in their executive summary:
"Positive developments show that the renewable energy transition is possible, but advances...are uneven across sectors. The year 2017 was a record-breaking one for renewable energy, [marked] by the largest ever increase in renewable power capacity, falling costs, increases in investment and advances in enabling technologies."
"Increasingly, regions within governments are becoming leaders in renewable energy. At the same time, many emerging countries are expanding their deployment and investment in renewables and related infrastructure. The private sector...drives the deployment of renewable energy through its procurement and investment decisions."
"Renewable-based stand-alone and off-grid single home or mini-grid systems represented about 6% of new electricity connections worldwide between 2012 and 2016."
On the home front, an article a year ago from Fortune magazine click here was upbeat about gains in alternative energy sources:
I agree with his concept of massive mobilization, especially his embrace of American business. I will deal with that shortly. ed. note: Check out my blog archives for info on the world wide deterioration of our supplies of water and food as well as air quality.
I continue on that path today, by analyzing the current capacity of alternative and renewable sources to replace fossil fuels.
Renewable energy comes from a source that is naturally occurring and replenishes naturally without human intervention. Examples include biomass resources, solar energy, wind energy, geothermal and hydro resources, while alternative energy includes resources like natural gas, fuel cells or any waste energy that does not naturally replenish but emits lower carbon emissions.
First, however, an update on what's happening to our planet seems appropriate, given the stubborn resistance of climate change deniers, to wit:
One million plant and animals species are on the verge of extinction, with alarming implications for human survival, according to a United Nations report released on May 6.
According to The Washington Post:
"The landmark report...from universities across the world goes further than previous studies by directly linking the loss of species to human activity [and] shows how those losses are undermining food and water security, as well as human health."
"More plants and animals are threatened with extinction now than any other period in human history, it concludes. Nature’s current rate of decline is unparalleled, and the accelerating rate of extinctions 'means grave impacts on people around the world are now likely,' the report said."
"Robert Watson, a British chemist who served as the panel’s chairman, said the decline in biodiversity is eroding 'the foundations of our economies, livelihoods, food security, health and quality of life worldwide.' "
" 'Once you get to basically 2 degrees Celsius [35 degrees fahrenheit], the models show that only 1 percent can survive,' Watson said. 'Let’s be quite candid. We’re not on the pathway to 2 degrees Celsius. We’re on a pathway to 3, 3 ½ degrees Celsius.' "
" 'If we are able to decrease CO2 emissions to zero by 2080, we might avoid 2 degrees Celsius of global temperature increase, but would pass 1.5 degrees Celsius before the year 2040. To actually avoid 1.5 degrees Celsius altogether, CO2 emissions from both fossil fuels and deforestation would need to be eliminated by the year 2050.' "
Here's another red blinking light from The Post:
The headline on May 3 reads As seas rise, Indonesia is moving its capital city. Other cities should take note.
The article by John Englander, president of the International Sea Level Institute is a stunner.
Some excerpts: "The decision [to move Jakarta] validates decades of warnings about the city’s catastrophic flood risk due to sinking land and rising seas."
"While Jakarta is especially vulnerable...to rising seas, it serves as a profound wake-up call for hundreds of major cities, Washington included."
"Indonesian President Widodo said 'the move is necessary, [as] the city can no longer support its massive population in the face of environmental threats...concerns of traffic congestion and water shortages' ...the city is sinking, a phenomenon known as subsidence. In the past 30 years, Jakarta sank more than 10 feet — a problem made only worse as the world’s great ice sheets melt."
"Jakarta is... by no means unique. In the USA major cities such as New Orleans and Norfolk are also subsiding, though not nearly as fast. Even still, all coastal cities must face...the reality of rising seas. There is no time to waste in planning and adapting to this threat."
"Although Miami is often cited as the city most at risk, there are many highly vulnerable — and highly populous — cities around the world, including Mumbai and Calcutta, India; Shanghai; Lagos, Nigeria; Manila; Dhaka, Bangladesh; Bangkok; Copenhagen; Tokyo; London; Houston; and Tampa...[these cites] already experience increased flooding during extreme high tides, often referred to as 'king tides.' "
"The latest projections for average global sea-level rise this century range from about three feet to as much as eight. [To lower]... that range largely depends on [reducing] greenhouse gases far beyond current efforts. But even a one-foot rise in sea level can dramatically increase coastal flooding. Hundreds of millions of people and trillions of dollars of assets are at risk."
"... the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers recently announced that...rising seas and subsidence will render the $14 billion fix to New Orleans levees inadequate in just four years. Clearly, we need a new strategy, too."
" [The reduction of] carbon emissions could avert the worst scenarios, but sea-level rise probably cannot be stopped this century. The planet has already warmed almost 2 degrees Fahrenheit, which means ice sheets and glaciers will continue to melt for centuries."
Before you start quivering in fear or hiding under your bed, let me lift your spirits with the increasing levels of success in harnessing the power of renewable and alternative energies.
First, the 2018 report by The International Energy Agency:
"Of the the share of electricity from low-carbon technologies – including renewables, nuclear and carbon capture and storage -- around one third (35%) of generation came from low-carbon sources in 2017, with the share of renewables reaching 25% and nuclear declining to 10%. In the Sustainability Development Scenario (SDS), the share of generation from low-carbon technologies should increase to nearly two-thirds (63%) in 2030, with wind and solar PV accounting for over 50% of this growth."
"Carbon Capture Utilization and Storage (CCUS) starts being deployed in the late 2020s and accounts for almost 4% of new additions in the period to 2040 with 5% of new generation."
"Positive developments show that the renewable energy transition is possible, but advances...are uneven across sectors. The year 2017 was a record-breaking one for renewable energy, [marked] by the largest ever increase in renewable power capacity, falling costs, increases in investment and advances in enabling technologies."
"Increasingly, regions within governments are becoming leaders in renewable energy. At the same time, many emerging countries are expanding their deployment and investment in renewables and related infrastructure. The private sector...drives the deployment of renewable energy through its procurement and investment decisions."
"Renewable-based stand-alone and off-grid single home or mini-grid systems represented about 6% of new electricity connections worldwide between 2012 and 2016."
On the home front, an article a year ago from Fortune magazine click here was upbeat about gains in alternative energy sources:
"Eighteen percent of [American electricity] was provided by renewable sources in 2017, including solar, wind, and hydroelectric dams. That’s up from 15% in 2016. Meanwhile, both greenhouse gas emissions from power generation and consumer spending on power declined."
"Renewables’ share of U.S. energy consumption has now doubled since 2008, as coal’s share crashed in the same period from 48% to 30%."
"Solar and wind projects made up roughly 62% of new power construction in 2017, as their cost continues to plummet. 2.9 gigawatts of new renewable energy projects were initiated last year [and] the solar and wind industries are creating jobs faster than the rest of the economy. In 2017, 10.4 million people were employed in the renewable energy industry globally, [mostly] in the solar and bioenergy industries."
Here's a breakdown of the energy sources coming to the rescue:
SOLAR
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| The size of more than 3,500 Soccer fields, Noor Ouarzazate in Morocco is the world's biggest concentrated solar power farm. |
First, let me define what solar energy is. There are two main types of solar energy technology: photovoltaics (PV) and solar thermal, also known as Consolidated Thermal Power (CSP). Solar PV is the rooftop solar you see on homes and businesses - it produces electricity from solar energy directly. Solar thermal technologies use the sun’s energy to generate heat, and electricity is generated from that. It is completely renewable installation costs are outweighed by the money saved in energy bills from traditional suppliers.
A summary of Wikipedia sources click here about solar power reports in 2018 includes the following:
SOLAR PV
New solar PV installations surpassed net additions (the total amount of energy gained from harvesting the source after deducting the amount of energy that was spent to harvest it) of fossil fuels and nuclear power combined. Solar PV was the top source of new power generating capacity in 2017, due largely to strong growth in China. Global capacity increased nearly one-third, due largely to the increasing competitiveness of solar PV, combined with growing electrical demand in developing countries and rising awareness of the technology’s potential to alleviate pollution, reduce carbon dioxide emissions and provide energy access.
The year 2017 saw record-low auction prices driven by intense competition to increase efficiencies and reduce energy costs. Even as falling prices have challenged solar PV companies, low and predictable energy prices offered by solar PV, along with expanding markets, are luring new participants to the industry, including oil and gas companies.
CONCENTRATING SOLAR THERMAL POWER
CSP plants with thermal energy storage emerge as a viable competitor to fossil fuel thermal power plants. Global concentrating solar thermal power (CSP) capacity reached 4.9 gigawatts (GW) in 2017, with South Africa being the only country to bring new CSP capacity online (100 megawatts (MW). However, at year’s end about 2 GW of new plants was under construction; Spain remained the global leader in existing CSP capacity, followed by the United States.
WIND POWER
An analysis by REN21 shown here in 2018 is bullish on wind power. Some excerpts:
"Current wind energy installations power roughly twenty million homes in the US per year and that number is growing. Most states in the nation now have some form of wind energy...and investment... continues to grow."
A summary of Wikipedia sources click here about solar power reports in 2018 includes the following:
SOLAR PV
New solar PV installations surpassed net additions (the total amount of energy gained from harvesting the source after deducting the amount of energy that was spent to harvest it) of fossil fuels and nuclear power combined. Solar PV was the top source of new power generating capacity in 2017, due largely to strong growth in China. Global capacity increased nearly one-third, due largely to the increasing competitiveness of solar PV, combined with growing electrical demand in developing countries and rising awareness of the technology’s potential to alleviate pollution, reduce carbon dioxide emissions and provide energy access.
The year 2017 saw record-low auction prices driven by intense competition to increase efficiencies and reduce energy costs. Even as falling prices have challenged solar PV companies, low and predictable energy prices offered by solar PV, along with expanding markets, are luring new participants to the industry, including oil and gas companies.
CONCENTRATING SOLAR THERMAL POWER
CSP plants with thermal energy storage emerge as a viable competitor to fossil fuel thermal power plants. Global concentrating solar thermal power (CSP) capacity reached 4.9 gigawatts (GW) in 2017, with South Africa being the only country to bring new CSP capacity online (100 megawatts (MW). However, at year’s end about 2 GW of new plants was under construction; Spain remained the global leader in existing CSP capacity, followed by the United States.
WIND POWER
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| Norway Wind Energy Farm |
An analysis by REN21 shown here in 2018 is bullish on wind power. Some excerpts:
"Current wind energy installations power roughly twenty million homes in the US per year and that number is growing. Most states in the nation now have some form of wind energy...and investment... continues to grow."
"Prices fell rapidly for both onshore and offshore wind power, and the offshore sector had its best year yet. The year 2017 brought tumbling bid prices for both onshore and offshore wind power capacity in auctions around the world...due to technology innovation and scale, [continuing] technology advances, reduced financing costs...and fierce competition in the industry. Electric utilities and large oil and gas companies continued to move further into the industry."
"Though it is a fairly new technology, its potential is enormous. A report made in Britain estimated that tidal energy could meet as much as 20% of the UK’s current electricity demands."
"The most common form of tidal energy generation is the use of Tidal Stream Generators [which] use the kinetic energy of the ocean to power turbines, without producing fossil fuels waste or being as susceptible to the elements as other forms of alternative energy."
"Another plus--the turbines are usually completely under water, so no one can complain about them spoiling the view."
"...bioenergy [represented] around 6% of global heat consumption in 2017. Recent advancements have also seen waste, such as that in landfills, and alcohol products used for similar purposes.in 2017."
GEOTHERMAL ENERGY
Hydrogen (H) is defined as a chemical element with atomic number 1 in the periodic table of elements. It is the lightest element and the most abundant chemical substance in the universe.
"Unlike other forms of natural gas, hydrogen is a ...clean burning fuel. Once produced, hydrogen gas cells emit only water vapor and warm air when in use."
"The major issue with this form of alternative energy is that it is mostly derived from the use of ...fossil fuels. As such, it could be argued that the emissions created to extract it counteract the benefits of its use."
"The process of electrolysis, which [splits] water into hydrogen and oxygen, makes this less of an issue [but] electrolysis [is used far less than the other methods] though research continues to make it more efficient and cost-effective."
"Hydrogen use in vehicles [has] enormous potential as an alternative transportation fuel [because] its fuel cells [are highly efficient] and [have] zero emissions in electric vehicles."
"Most hydrogen-fueled vehicles are [cars] and transit buses [with] an electric motor powered by a hydrogen fuel cell. A few of these vehicles burn hydrogen directly. The high cost of fuel cells and the [small number] of hydrogen fueling stations have limited the number of [these] vehicles."
But, hold on! Get this--Europe is beginning to use Hydrail (Hydrogen powered trains)! According to the British newspaper, The Telegraph click here reported in January that " [Hydrails could be running] on British railways as early as 2022...
Starting with the first nuclear power station in 1956 (Calder Hall in England), nukes enjoyed continued growth for decades until the events at Chernobyl and Fukushima cast a critical eye on the massive danger poised to mankind when real things go bump in the night.
However, nuclear power remains as one of the most abundant forms of alternative energy. And few would deny that there are direct benefits in terms of emissions and efficiency, while also boosting the economy with creating jobs.
The 2018 report by the World Nuclear Organization click here indicates some of the changes to the industry, to wit:
"[There were] 9 reactor startups (8 less than scheduled), 7 closure decisions and 5 construction starts. Two new reactors entered Long-Term Outage (LTO) and 7 were restarted. Globally, 415 reactors are operating (10 more than a year ago), 49 are under construction (lowest in a decade)."
"Only two countries have started up new reactors in 2018, China connected seven and Russia two. The total of nine new startups compares with 17 units scheduled at the beginning of the year."
"Four units were permanently closed, two in Russia one each in South Korea and the U.S., while two reactors were added to the LTO category, one each in China and India. [The]... 415 operating reactors [includes] 10 more than at the beginning of 2018, but still below pre-Fukushima levels and 23 units from the historic peak of 438 in 2002."
Finally, scientists all over the world are heavily engaged in the pursuit of the holy grail in power- -Nuclear fusion. It offers a means of producing energy that’s safer and cleaner than current methods.
According to the dictionary (Merriam-Webster Online, www.m-w.com), the process is essentially the opposite of nuclear fission, which is used to power today’s nuclear plants. Fission involves splitting large atoms into smaller ones; fusion, on the other hand, combines atoms to release even greater amounts of energy.
Fusion has been a long-sought-after energy source because it is the most efficient power-producing process we know of. Hydrogen is a plentiful fuel, and unlike fission, fusion reactions create minimal, carbon-free waste. Further, hydrogen is in near infinite supply, so we’d be able to power fusion reactors for a long time. For a dramatic demonstration of fusion’s power, just look up toward the sun.
Nuclear fusion is attracting investors interest.
The Economist Magazine focused on nuclear fusion in May. Their findings:
"Firms in North America and Europe are... planning to build...profitable fusion reactors. Their projects have different approaches and different amounts of money behind them. But they all have one thing in common, a desire to bury the old joke that commercial fusion power is 30 years away—and always will be."
"These days most attempts to achieve [fusion] are made using machines called tokamaks...And it is the tokamak route that several of the commercial fusion-power wannabes are travelling along. One such is Commonwealth Fusion Systems (CFS)...Another is Tokamak Energy...Tokamak Energy has already built a series of working prototypes [CFS has not]."
"There are other approaches beyond using tokamaks. In Vancouver, Canada, a firm called General Fusion is working on one that uses a phenomenon called field-reversed configuration (FRC). [They hope to [build] an experiential plant within five years."
"Another firm...is TAE Technologies...TAE’s... device, unveiled in...2017, is a 25-metre-long machine named Norman, [which] is a cylindrical reactor. It is radical in it's choice of fuel (plasma injectors)."
"And, in the actual design of its reactor, the most radical of the lot is probably the path being pursued by First Light Fusion...Though First Light’s process aims to extract energy from a conventional mixture of deuterium and tritium, [they are unique in their usage of hydrogen isotopes found in normal water.]"
Investment Capital is being raised for these ventures. TAE has rustled up $600m in private funding so far. General Fusion has raised over $100m, Tokamak Energy $65m and First Light, which is still at the earliest stages of progress, $33m.
"[There is] no shortage of ideas about how a practical fusion reactor might be built [and]
everyone talks a good story about this. CFS wants to achieve gain by 2025...TAE aspires to supply fusion-based electricity to the grid by 2030. Which is also the year that Tokamak Energy says it will start generating grid-scale electricity...First Light Fusion predicts that reactors using its technology will be in place some time in the 2030s."
"Stephen Dean, of Fusion Power Associates... observes, 'the history of fusion doesn’t give you a lot of confidence that there won’t be a problem... We’ve been at it for 50 years and there’s always been a problem.' Nevertheless, he also says that ...'They’re all based on good physics. They’re all good people that are doing these programmes. And the prize is enormous. If even one of the fusion startups succeeds, the world’s electricity supply will be guaranteed—and carbon free—for ever.' "
SHOW ME THE MONEY $$$$$$$$$$$$$
So, ya gotta wonder--is all this hoopla about renewables attracting investors with very deep pockets?
One source for an answer comes From the REN21 2017 report mentioned earlier:
A number of countries have introduced initiatives to promote the growth of solar power. Britain's "Feed-in Tariff’ is one example, as is the United States "Solar Investment Tax Credit".
Dollar investment in new renewable power capacity (including all hydropower) was three times the investment in fossil fuel generating capacity, and more than double the investment in fossil fuel and nuclear power generation combined.
Developing and emerging economies overtook developed countries in renewable energy investment for the first time in 2015 and extended their lead in 2017, accounting for a record 63% of the global total, due largely to China. Investment in developing and emerging countries increased 20% to USD 177 billion, while that of developed countries fell 19% to USD 103 billion.
In 2017, corporations sourced renewable electricity in more than 70 countries through corporate power purchase agreements (PPAs), utility green procurement programmes and unbundled renewable electricity certificates (RECs) or guarantees of origin (GOs). In addition, corporations in a large number of countries worldwide have invested directly in renewable energy systems for their own consumption.
I should also note that Ford has announced a $500 million investment to develop an all-new electric vehicle in Michigan.
In April, Forbes Magazine published an analysis of the bucks flowing to renewables and alternative fuels thusly:
(1) Big oil is putting capital into low carbon initiatives such as using captured carbon dioxide in oil recovery, returning massive amounts of carbon permanently into the ground. Examples: Occidental Petroleum is building gas liquefaction plants and Shell has been building off-shore wind facilities.
(2) Capital is indeed being raised by the fusion companies mentioned earlier. TAE has rustled up $600m in private funding so far. General Fusion has raised over $100m, Tokamak Energy $65m) and First Light, which is still at the earliest stages of progress, $33m.
(3) Natural Gas will facilitate the increased use of wind and solar energy until utility scale batteries are developed. And methanol is in increasing use as a bunker fuel for shipping, displacing diesel.
(4) Investments in battery storage continues apace and could eventually lead to a more robust renewables sector. The price of battery storage has tumbled by 79% since 2010, from $1,000/kWh to $209/kWh (kilowatt hours)
(5) Governments around the world have chipped in big time with green energy requirements, tax and regulatory mandates and financial incentives while government research has led to past innovations such as unlocking trapped natural gas to current efforts to make cold fusion a reality.
(6) Oil will be with us for decades, natural gas likely much longer. But progress is being made and, from an investment perspective, a new green deal is already here. There is no reason for an investor today to choose between doing good and doing well, at least in the energy and climate change space.
(7) Each of these strategies represents a part of a now undeniable megatrend and investing in the energy transition is no longer an aspiration, it is now a powerful portfolio tool.
"...Rapidly falling prices for wind power have made it the least-cost option for new power capacity in a large and growing number of countries."
"The offshore wind sector had its best year yet, as total capacity increased 30%. ...and the world’s first commercial floating project was commissioned in Scotland...[while] at least 13 countries...met 10% or more of their electricity consumption with wind power during 2017."
OCEAN ENERGY
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| technologies creating renewable energies from seas and oceans |
Ocean energy was also covered in the 2018 REN21 report cited above.
"[Overall] industry’s optimism and development efforts brought ocean energy closer to commercialisation. Of the approximately 529 megawatts (MW) of operating ocean energy capacity at the end of 2017, more than 90% was represented by two tidal barrage facilities."
"...in Europe...some technologies advanced enough to be on the brink of commercialisation. The industry started constructing its first manufacturing plants, promising greater production scale and cost reductions. Government support...through direct funding, [research] and infrastructure support, remains a critical element in ongoing development."
TIDAL ENERGY
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| The French Sabella Tidal Generator |
"While tidal energy uses the power of water to generate energy, much like with hydroelectric methods, its application...has more in common with wind turbines in many cases."
"Though it is a fairly new technology, its potential is enormous. A report made in Britain estimated that tidal energy could meet as much as 20% of the UK’s current electricity demands."
"The most common form of tidal energy generation is the use of Tidal Stream Generators [which] use the kinetic energy of the ocean to power turbines, without producing fossil fuels waste or being as susceptible to the elements as other forms of alternative energy."
"In the USA, most of the tidal energy resources are along the coast of Alaska where populations are small. Still, tidal energy could power their small cities."
"Unlike the wind, the tides are very predictable. So it’s easy to decide where to put tidal turbines and figure out how much energy they will generate.
"Another plus--the turbines are usually completely under water, so no one can complain about them spoiling the view."
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| The Oyster has been making wave energy since 2009 |
WAVE ENERGY
"Water again [is] a valuable contributor to alternative energy... sources with wave energy converters. [They are better than] tidal energy sources because they can be placed in the ocean in various situations and locations."
"[Benefits include:]...no waste production, high reliability and...enormous potential."
"... the cost of such systems is a major contributing factor to slow uptake. Even though wave energy is [new] capital costs per net kw are already down in the range of wind energy devices, and below solar."
HYDROPOWER
Harnessing the force of falling water may be the world's oldest source of power. Its value lies in more than energy production--it also helps to control flooding control and irrigating crops.
The 2018 Report by the International Hydropower Association has these updates on their website:
- Hydropower generates about 24 percent of the world's and 12 percent of the United States' electricity.
- China remained the perennial leader in commissioning new hydropower capacity, accounting for nearly 40% of new installations in 2017.
- Pumped-storage hydroelectricity (PSH) (a type of hydroelectric energy storage used by electric power systems during periods of high electrical demand) accounted for about 96% of global energy storage capacity in 2017.
- According to the EIA, "Hydropower is also growing and accounts for one-fifth of new renewables...and over a quarter of the growth in renewable energy electricity generation."
BIOENERGY
Bioenergy is defined as renewable energy made available from materials derived from biological sources. Biomass is any organic material which has stored sunlight in the form of chemical energy. As a fuel it may include wood, wood waste, straw, and other crop residues, manure, sugarcane, and many other by-products from a variety of agricultural processes.
Recent advancements have also seen waste, such as that in landfills, and alcohol products used for similar purposes.
"Bioenergy accounts for roughly 9% of world total primary energy supply today...half of this relates to the traditional use of biomass in developing countries for cooking and heating, using inefficient open fires or... cookstoves with impacts on health [like] indoor [and outdoor smoke pollution..."
"Modern bioenergy [however] is an important source of renewable energy--its contribution to final energy demand...is five times higher than wind and solar PV combined."
"...bioenergy [represented] around 6% of global heat consumption in 2017. Recent advancements have also seen waste, such as that in landfills, and alcohol products used for similar purposes.in 2017."
"In recent years, bioenergy for electricity and transport biofuels has been growing the fastest, mainly due to higher levels of policy support."
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| Swimmers near icelandic geothermal plant |
GEOTHERMAL ENERGY
According to a recent National Geographic article, geothermal energy is "simply power derived from the Earth’s internal heat...contained in the rock and fluids beneath Earth's crust [ranging] from shallow ground to several miles below the surface..."
"These underground reservoirs of steam and hot water can be tapped to generate electricity [in power plants] or to heat and cool buildings directly."
"A geothermal heat pump system can take advantage of the constant temperature of the upper ten feet of the Earth’s surface to heat a home in the winter, while extracting heat from the building and transferring it back to the relatively cooler ground in the summer."
HYDROGEN POWER
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| Linde's hydrogen station in Emeryville, California |
Hydrogen power can be a mite complicated to understand, so let me help simplify the subject with this diagram:
The supply area depicts all of the sources (renewable and non-renewable) used in the process of creating power and all of them can be used to create hydrogen (H) power. The most common forms are hydrogen gas and hydrogen fuel cells.
The best synopsis of Hydrogen power is by the aforementioned Energy Information Agency. Some excerpts:
"Hydrogen gas (H2) is colorless, odorless and highly flammable. On the periodic table, it is the chemical element of atomic number 1..
"Unlike other forms of natural gas, hydrogen is a ...clean burning fuel. Once produced, hydrogen gas cells emit only water vapor and warm air when in use."
"The major issue with this form of alternative energy is that it is mostly derived from the use of ...fossil fuels. As such, it could be argued that the emissions created to extract it counteract the benefits of its use."
"The process of electrolysis, which [splits] water into hydrogen and oxygen, makes this less of an issue [but] electrolysis [is used far less than the other methods] though research continues to make it more efficient and cost-effective."
"Hydrogen fuel cells produce electricity by combining hydrogen and oxygen atoms. [They] are pollution-free and have greater efficiency than traditional combustion technology."
"...Small fuel cells can power any portable device that uses batteries [while] large fuel cells can provide electricity for emergency power in buildings and in remote areas...not connected to electric power grids."
"Hydrogen use in vehicles [has] enormous potential as an alternative transportation fuel [because] its fuel cells [are highly efficient] and [have] zero emissions in electric vehicles."
"Most hydrogen-fueled vehicles are [cars] and transit buses [with] an electric motor powered by a hydrogen fuel cell. A few of these vehicles burn hydrogen directly. The high cost of fuel cells and the [small number] of hydrogen fueling stations have limited the number of [these] vehicles."
But, hold on! Get this--Europe is beginning to use Hydrail (Hydrogen powered trains)! According to the British newspaper, The Telegraph click here reported in January that " [Hydrails could be running] on British railways as early as 2022...
Based on the tried-and-tested British Rail Class 321, the fuel cell trains – nicknamed ‘Breeze’ – will bring zero-emission hydrogen tech to parts of the UK that still run on diesel."
NUCLEAR POWER
However, nuclear power remains as one of the most abundant forms of alternative energy. And few would deny that there are direct benefits in terms of emissions and efficiency, while also boosting the economy with creating jobs.
The 2018 report by the World Nuclear Organization click here indicates some of the changes to the industry, to wit:
"[There were] 9 reactor startups (8 less than scheduled), 7 closure decisions and 5 construction starts. Two new reactors entered Long-Term Outage (LTO) and 7 were restarted. Globally, 415 reactors are operating (10 more than a year ago), 49 are under construction (lowest in a decade)."
"Only two countries have started up new reactors in 2018, China connected seven and Russia two. The total of nine new startups compares with 17 units scheduled at the beginning of the year."
"Four units were permanently closed, two in Russia one each in South Korea and the U.S., while two reactors were added to the LTO category, one each in China and India. [The]... 415 operating reactors [includes] 10 more than at the beginning of 2018, but still below pre-Fukushima levels and 23 units from the historic peak of 438 in 2002."
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| ITER (International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor) |
Finally, scientists all over the world are heavily engaged in the pursuit of the holy grail in power- -Nuclear fusion. It offers a means of producing energy that’s safer and cleaner than current methods.
According to the dictionary (Merriam-Webster Online, www.m-w.com), the process is essentially the opposite of nuclear fission, which is used to power today’s nuclear plants. Fission involves splitting large atoms into smaller ones; fusion, on the other hand, combines atoms to release even greater amounts of energy.
Fusion has been a long-sought-after energy source because it is the most efficient power-producing process we know of. Hydrogen is a plentiful fuel, and unlike fission, fusion reactions create minimal, carbon-free waste. Further, hydrogen is in near infinite supply, so we’d be able to power fusion reactors for a long time. For a dramatic demonstration of fusion’s power, just look up toward the sun.
Nuclear fusion is attracting investors interest.
The Economist Magazine focused on nuclear fusion in May. Their findings:
"Firms in North America and Europe are... planning to build...profitable fusion reactors. Their projects have different approaches and different amounts of money behind them. But they all have one thing in common, a desire to bury the old joke that commercial fusion power is 30 years away—and always will be."
"These days most attempts to achieve [fusion] are made using machines called tokamaks...And it is the tokamak route that several of the commercial fusion-power wannabes are travelling along. One such is Commonwealth Fusion Systems (CFS)...Another is Tokamak Energy...Tokamak Energy has already built a series of working prototypes [CFS has not]."
"There are other approaches beyond using tokamaks. In Vancouver, Canada, a firm called General Fusion is working on one that uses a phenomenon called field-reversed configuration (FRC). [They hope to [build] an experiential plant within five years."
"Another firm...is TAE Technologies...TAE’s... device, unveiled in...2017, is a 25-metre-long machine named Norman, [which] is a cylindrical reactor. It is radical in it's choice of fuel (plasma injectors)."
"And, in the actual design of its reactor, the most radical of the lot is probably the path being pursued by First Light Fusion...Though First Light’s process aims to extract energy from a conventional mixture of deuterium and tritium, [they are unique in their usage of hydrogen isotopes found in normal water.]"
Investment Capital is being raised for these ventures. TAE has rustled up $600m in private funding so far. General Fusion has raised over $100m, Tokamak Energy $65m and First Light, which is still at the earliest stages of progress, $33m.
"[There is] no shortage of ideas about how a practical fusion reactor might be built [and]
everyone talks a good story about this. CFS wants to achieve gain by 2025...TAE aspires to supply fusion-based electricity to the grid by 2030. Which is also the year that Tokamak Energy says it will start generating grid-scale electricity...First Light Fusion predicts that reactors using its technology will be in place some time in the 2030s."
"Stephen Dean, of Fusion Power Associates... observes, 'the history of fusion doesn’t give you a lot of confidence that there won’t be a problem... We’ve been at it for 50 years and there’s always been a problem.' Nevertheless, he also says that ...'They’re all based on good physics. They’re all good people that are doing these programmes. And the prize is enormous. If even one of the fusion startups succeeds, the world’s electricity supply will be guaranteed—and carbon free—for ever.' "
SHOW ME THE MONEY $$$$$$$$$$$$$
So, ya gotta wonder--is all this hoopla about renewables attracting investors with very deep pockets?
One source for an answer comes From the REN21 2017 report mentioned earlier:
A number of countries have introduced initiatives to promote the growth of solar power. Britain's "Feed-in Tariff’ is one example, as is the United States "Solar Investment Tax Credit".
Dollar investment in new renewable power capacity (including all hydropower) was three times the investment in fossil fuel generating capacity, and more than double the investment in fossil fuel and nuclear power generation combined.
Developing and emerging economies overtook developed countries in renewable energy investment for the first time in 2015 and extended their lead in 2017, accounting for a record 63% of the global total, due largely to China. Investment in developing and emerging countries increased 20% to USD 177 billion, while that of developed countries fell 19% to USD 103 billion.
In 2017, corporations sourced renewable electricity in more than 70 countries through corporate power purchase agreements (PPAs), utility green procurement programmes and unbundled renewable electricity certificates (RECs) or guarantees of origin (GOs). In addition, corporations in a large number of countries worldwide have invested directly in renewable energy systems for their own consumption.
I should also note that Ford has announced a $500 million investment to develop an all-new electric vehicle in Michigan.
(1) Big oil is putting capital into low carbon initiatives such as using captured carbon dioxide in oil recovery, returning massive amounts of carbon permanently into the ground. Examples: Occidental Petroleum is building gas liquefaction plants and Shell has been building off-shore wind facilities.
(2) Capital is indeed being raised by the fusion companies mentioned earlier. TAE has rustled up $600m in private funding so far. General Fusion has raised over $100m, Tokamak Energy $65m) and First Light, which is still at the earliest stages of progress, $33m.
(3) Natural Gas will facilitate the increased use of wind and solar energy until utility scale batteries are developed. And methanol is in increasing use as a bunker fuel for shipping, displacing diesel.
(4) Investments in battery storage continues apace and could eventually lead to a more robust renewables sector. The price of battery storage has tumbled by 79% since 2010, from $1,000/kWh to $209/kWh (kilowatt hours)
(5) Governments around the world have chipped in big time with green energy requirements, tax and regulatory mandates and financial incentives while government research has led to past innovations such as unlocking trapped natural gas to current efforts to make cold fusion a reality.
(6) Oil will be with us for decades, natural gas likely much longer. But progress is being made and, from an investment perspective, a new green deal is already here. There is no reason for an investor today to choose between doing good and doing well, at least in the energy and climate change space.
(7) Each of these strategies represents a part of a now undeniable megatrend and investing in the energy transition is no longer an aspiration, it is now a powerful portfolio tool.
There is yet another future renewable energy source which has received little attention--converting air to gas. It seems that Microsoft founder Bill Gates has found a new outlet for his restless energy and wealth.
The Guardian online Magazine has published an article entitled "Could the future of clean energy be to turn air into petrol?" Some excerpts:
"It may sound too good to be true, but Bill Gates and his partners are experimenting with a technology that could potentially help stop global warming as well as provide clean fuel."
"[In fact, their] engineers have already succeeded in extracting CO2 from the air and using it to produce a mix of petrol and diesel. They hope to eventually replicate the process on an industrial scale."
OK, let's go to my get real department.
In the foreseeable future, coal is toast. The stinky stuff is simply no longer competitive, despite Trump's ill founded support.
No energy sector can stand alone; none have an absolute lock on power generation, to wit:
Solar power is reliant on locations where the sun shines. Ditto for wind power.
While geothermal energy is generated in over 20 countries, the heavy upfront costs of creating power plants as well as the eye watering
expenses necessary to drill six miles to reach the "hot spots", can be daunting.
Although research continues into ways to better harness the power of fusion, it remains in experimental stages.
Biofuels stand out because they make use of animal and plant life to create energy and are renewable when plants are used and are renewable in cases where plants are used. The catch? Currently, they usually require fossil fuels to power the machinery for extraction, which can contribute to increased emissions even if biofuels themselves don’t.
There are signs everywhere that the auto industry is going fully electric.
For instance, in the 2019 New York International Auto Show, 40 vehicles had a battery power component; the top two finalists for World Car of The Year were fully electric (Jaguar's I-Pace, followed by Audi's e-tron).
Also, according to Inside EVs, "...in 2018, electric vehicles sales were up by 81%. The sales of electric vehicles are also increasing...in other countries. Electric cars outsold other non-electric car models in Norway...which was about 60% of all vehicles sales."
However, while its true that EVs put out zero emissions, they don’t produce any power themselves; they are only as green as the power that comes out of the wall socket. Further, driving ranges vary greatly. In particular, if you love to put the pedal to the metal, your range drops dramatically.
Bottom line? There is no silver bullet here. Renewables are clearly on a tear but they still produce only some 20 % of our energy sources worldwide. They must work with all the other energy sources whenever and whenever they can in order to meet the insatiable energy needs of an ever increasing population.
Given enough time, there is little doubt that we can do this, especially if we can somehow resist the urge to buy piles of stuff we really don't need at all.
Is there enough time? For this writer, that question is one I have often tried to answer and failed. But I am beginning to think the odds are increasingly in mankind's favor, given our capacity to choose kindness over meanness; to embrace nature like an old friend long missing but found again; to finally realize that while the clock is ticking ever faster, we can do this!
The Guardian online Magazine has published an article entitled "Could the future of clean energy be to turn air into petrol?" Some excerpts:
"It may sound too good to be true, but Bill Gates and his partners are experimenting with a technology that could potentially help stop global warming as well as provide clean fuel."
"[In fact, their] engineers have already succeeded in extracting CO2 from the air and using it to produce a mix of petrol and diesel. They hope to eventually replicate the process on an industrial scale."
OK, let's go to my get real department.
In the foreseeable future, coal is toast. The stinky stuff is simply no longer competitive, despite Trump's ill founded support.
No energy sector can stand alone; none have an absolute lock on power generation, to wit:
Solar power is reliant on locations where the sun shines. Ditto for wind power.
While geothermal energy is generated in over 20 countries, the heavy upfront costs of creating power plants as well as the eye watering
expenses necessary to drill six miles to reach the "hot spots", can be daunting.
Although research continues into ways to better harness the power of fusion, it remains in experimental stages.
Biofuels stand out because they make use of animal and plant life to create energy and are renewable when plants are used and are renewable in cases where plants are used. The catch? Currently, they usually require fossil fuels to power the machinery for extraction, which can contribute to increased emissions even if biofuels themselves don’t.
There are signs everywhere that the auto industry is going fully electric.
For instance, in the 2019 New York International Auto Show, 40 vehicles had a battery power component; the top two finalists for World Car of The Year were fully electric (Jaguar's I-Pace, followed by Audi's e-tron).
Also, according to Inside EVs, "...in 2018, electric vehicles sales were up by 81%. The sales of electric vehicles are also increasing...in other countries. Electric cars outsold other non-electric car models in Norway...which was about 60% of all vehicles sales."
However, while its true that EVs put out zero emissions, they don’t produce any power themselves; they are only as green as the power that comes out of the wall socket. Further, driving ranges vary greatly. In particular, if you love to put the pedal to the metal, your range drops dramatically.
Bottom line? There is no silver bullet here. Renewables are clearly on a tear but they still produce only some 20 % of our energy sources worldwide. They must work with all the other energy sources whenever and whenever they can in order to meet the insatiable energy needs of an ever increasing population.
Given enough time, there is little doubt that we can do this, especially if we can somehow resist the urge to buy piles of stuff we really don't need at all.
Is there enough time? For this writer, that question is one I have often tried to answer and failed. But I am beginning to think the odds are increasingly in mankind's favor, given our capacity to choose kindness over meanness; to embrace nature like an old friend long missing but found again; to finally realize that while the clock is ticking ever faster, we can do this!
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