When I look into the future, it's so bright it hurts my eyes -- Oprah Winfrey

Pain. Sweat. Boredom. That’s what I remember most about working in the Northwest a lifetime ago. In the 60’s I pulled lumber, veneer and railroad ties off a fast moving “green chain” in many mills. Each shift was always a dull repetition as the last and typically left me with an aching back and sweaty brow.  But the money was pretty good, especially in union shops.  Nor did one have to worry about education requirements as a high school diploma wasn’t required.  Loggers made more money, but the occupation was routinely rated as one of the most dangerous in the country. In hundreds of towns like Morton, Packwood and Roseburg, timber was king. Lumber was in demand for a rapidly growing America and the accompanying rural lifestyle appealed to many families.

Many urban areas had similar, well paying, blue collar jobs for men and women who toiled to manufacture goods like cars, textiles, steel and electronics for the whole world. So, as the saying went, “there’s a chicken in every pot and a car in every garage”.

No more. Since those halcyon days, mill towns gradually lost access to forests because of species and waterway protections as well as over cutting. Globalization caused thousands of   manufacturers to close their doors.  What remains is The Rust Belt (a region of the upper Northeastern US, the Great lakes, and the Midwest states).  The US Bureau of Labor has reported that “since 1970, manufacturing jobs as a percentage of total employment have declined from a quarter of payrolls to less than 10 per cent.” 

Further, wages for the middle class have remained flat for 30 years. So it should be no surprise that, millions of Americans are mad as hell. 2016 Presidential candidates Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders are trying to harness that anger.  Trump points to the loss of US jobs to immigrants and “really bad” trade agreements.  Sanders reserves his anger for Wall Street, the “Billionaire Class” and student loan debt. And just about everyone rates the dysfunctional members of congress as lower than, um, cockroaches.

There is some merit to all those opinions, but instead of seeking a nostalgic return to old jobs that were lost or trying to redistribute the treasure accumulated by those greedy billionaires, perhaps it is time to consider just what kind of jobs will exist in the future.

This writer thinks that the types of jobs in the future will be determined not by political will alone. Jobs will be radically different as will the way we live our lives. The source of these changes has been labeled with names like E Commerce, The Digital Age and The Gig Economy. The names all point to an age in which technology will transform the world as much as The Industrial Revolution did in the 20^th century.  In my humble opinion, those angry voters looking for a rebound in manufacturing jobs are set to be keenly disappointed because those jobs will not be replaced in the US and probably not overseas either. Instead, manufacturing will rely on multiple locations where the technology and talented people exist.  Products will be produced with contributions from many points on the globe.

White collar jobs are affected also.  Already robotics and new digital technology have taken over jobs like on-line marketers, Anesthesiologists, Diagnosticians and Surgeons according to a year-old report by Fortune magazine.  Financial consultants are being replaced by ever more powerful algorithms which allows computers to buy and sell stocks and commodities almost instantly.

Two years ago, research by the University of Oxford estimated that 47% of total US jobs could be automated and taken over by computer by 2033. According to Boston Consulting, “By 2025 the share of tasks performed by robots will rise from a global average of around 10 per cent to about 25 percent across all manufacturing industries.” 

Manufacturing technology is also being almost magically transformed by 3D printing. 3D has evolved from making small items (mostly plastic) layer by layer within the confines of an enclosed box to newer external systems, allowing construction of buildings and homes. In fact, my son in law, an Amsterdam based graphics designer, recently told me that efforts are to begin soon in The Netherlands to build a bridge of steel using the new 3D system. On a smaller scale, but equally impressive was a video posted on You Tube revealing that on January 1, 2016 a 3D printer enabled the successful transplant of a new kidney for a toddler.

The rapid emergence of a new, on-demand economy matches freelance workers to needed services such as drivers (Uber), cleaning supplies (Handy) and food (Instacart).  Axiom will provide a lawyer. Click on Medicast’s site and a doctor will be at your door “within 2 hours”.  Elance-oDesk brags that they have “9.3m workers for hire with 3.7m companies.”

The online sharing economy is also emerging rapidly.  The earliest example of this, carpooling, was (and is) a way to share the cost of travel and use an auto which sits usually sits idle most of the time. This peer to peer, excess capacity model goods is being applied to houses, apartments, clothing, computers, tools and toys, to mention a few. It’s a new way of doing business by using the new technologies like GPS, cloud data storage and social media. Price Waterhouse Coopers, an accounting firm, has reported that “the peer to peer story is one of stellar growth…reaching about 15 billion in 2014 and on track to reach $335 billion by 2025.” In my opinion, corporations will soon join in. The excess capacity would probably work well with car rental agencies and with hotels who could save money by allowing  individual franchises to own the property.  

.

This world of E Commerce will transform the way we work.  Industries like travel, tourism, transportation and equipment for hire will have to evolve to survive.  Individual jobs such as seamstresses, translators, sports writers, medical transcriptionists and (gasp!) journalists are already being replaced.

Of course, many workers are already familiar with working outside of the traditional 40-hour work week in a corporate cubicle.  A growing number of folks are engaged in work anytime and anyplace in the world. This always available concept provides more flexibility but whether this is a good idea or not depends on who you talk to. No doubt many enjoy this new found freedom. However, many friends engaged in these positions tell me they are probably often working more than 40 hours a week, apparently because time considerations are often secondary to the successful completion of tasks in determining compensation.

More than likely, jobs in the future will be less secure and less stable than they were. Clearly, the labor environment of the late 20^th century is dying. People will often have to stitch together many unrelated jobs.  That is a scary concept for some, especially folks in their 50’s who must once again retrain themselves for a changing world. Younger folks, who learned to play on a computer as a toddler, will probably find it easier to embrace jobless working. I believe that they will also create lives that still reflect our long held values.  Americans have always risen to a challenge with equal amounts of grit and laughter. We will do so again.

Corporate Wet Dreams

I have a long list of things I hate. I won’t list them all because I hate long lists. Warm beer, crappy Chinese imports, head banging music, TV commercials that never die and one ply toilet paper are all things that suck to me. But my chief source of ire has to be bottled water. I know that bottled water is all the rage right now; It’s likely that many folks have a bottle within reach  right now, even if it costs roughly $7.50 per gallon, according to a Business Insider column.  Rock stars, famous actors, politicians and, sadly, even some environmentalists are seen swilling the stuff.  In fact, according to the IBWA (International Bottled Water Association) Americans consumed 10 billion gallons or 32 gallons per person in 2013.  Sometime this year, bottled water will exceed sales of soda drinks (Coke, 7 Up, etc.).  Given the long association of soft drinks with diabetes, obesity and bad teeth, this is a welcome development. No one would argue that water isn’t better than “pop”.

Yes, water is life, but why are we so willing to forego tap water for the bottled kind with idyllic sounding brands like Fiji, Arrowhead, Eden Springs or Dasani, or any of the 173 worldwide brands?

The Natural Resources Defense Council visit site issued a 4-year independent review of water sources and determined the following: (1) “25 percent or more of bottled water is really just tap water in a bottle—sometimes treated, sometimes not.”  (Let me note that most states do not require brands to list the source of their water.) (2) “About 22 percent of the brands tested contained, in at least one sample, chemical contaminants at levels above strict state health limits.” 

Let us not forget the bottles: About 3 years ago, I remember a TV infomercial which showed that a stream of water bottles placed end to end would stretch to the moon in 14 days. Further, according to numerous waste management companies we recycle 23 percent of all plastics, including water bottles, each year.  Currently,14 national parks and two cities (San Francisco and Concord) have banned the sale of single use plastic bottles.  What are the energy costs of bottled water? The Pacific Institute link here has reported that bottle production for US consumption required “…more than 17 million barrels of oil EXCLUDING TRANSPORT COSTS” (my emphasis). They also noted that it takes 3 liters of water to make 1 liter of bottled water.

I have found that it is instructive to focus on one brand (Fiji) and one manufacturer (Nestle).

Fiji is the number one selling brand in the US. It is far more expensive than most store brands (largely because it has to be shipped the equivalent of over 5000 miles) but the cost has not deterred sales. Why?  Because Fiji is considered way cool. Fiji has spent millions promoting Fiji spring water as having “life-changing” qualities. And nobody burnishes their green credibility and charity work like Fiji.  They have managed to hydrate climate change meetings, anti-capitalism confabs and the 2008 Democratic Convention.  Obama sips it.  Ditto for Ditty, Paris and Nicole Kidman. Allegedly, the elite Carlyle Hotel in Manhattan fills their dog bowls with Fiji.

The source of Fiji Water is an artesian well in the Yaquina Valley of Vita Levu.  Fiji bottled water was started in 1996 and has been surrounded by controversy ever since.  In 2006, Fiji water posted an ad that said “The label says Fiji because it’s not bottled in Cleveland.”  Cleveland was insulted.  They ran numerous tests and found “Fiji Water contained 6.31 micrograms of arsenic per liter and Cleveland contained none. In 2010 The University of Vermont link here reported that Fiji Water had “high levels of bacteria well above standard plate count (SPC).”

Fiji’s artesian water is not available to locals. The Vermont report also noted “Water supply for locals is unreliable and outbreaks of typhoid and parasitic infections have occurred.”  Arguably, water infrastructure has probably improved since then but in January 2015 The Fiji Health ministry reported 2 dozen typhoid cases in Bus and 17 cases of Dengue Fever in Macuata.

Now let us examine Nestle, who is not only the largest producer of food products worldwide but is also the global leader of bottled waters with 70 brands shipped to the US and Europe (think Perrier, San Pellegrino and Nestle Pure Life).  A good place to start is by viewing the award winning 2013 film documentary entitled “Bottled Life” which was produced by Swiss Journalist Res Gehringer.  He travelled to Pakistan, the initial test market for Nestle Pure Life (now a best seller) which is made from purified groundwater.  He was denied entry into the company plant, but outside the plant the film reveals that nearby groundwater levels had fallen dramatically and the local fountain water appeared to be stinky sludge.  The film notes that in Lagos, Nigeria, slum dwellers spend half of their income on water canisters while the upper class buys Pure Life.

In America, Nestle’s efforts are centered in small rural towns like Fryeburg, Newfield, Shapleigh, McCloud and recently, in Hood River, Oregon. According to a watchdog group called Stop Nestle Waters,link here Nestle employs an army of lawyers and lobbyists to battle local resistance with lawsuits and by funding campaigns of pro-Nestle election candidates.  They have been kicked out of Enumclaw WA and Kennebunk MA.  However, brands like Aquafina, Dasani and Arrowhead are doing just fine, despite the fact their water comes from drought zones in California.

If the growth in bottled water doesn’t frost you, consider the following:  Since 1990 there has been a worldwide effort to privatize water.  Water rights would be transferred to major corporations. Water would cease to be a free and basic human right; it would be secondary to profit.  The idea (backed by the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund) is that water in private hands improves effiency and service. However, a 2014 report by the Transnational Institute revealed that “180 cities in 35 countries have regained control of their water to municipalities in the last 15 years.”  The change was prompted by citizen protests on a massive scale.  Stay tuned and chuck your Fiji bottle.

Que Sera Sera (Whatever Will Be, Will Be) ---Doris Day

On New Year’s Eve, I thought of my mother who loved to sing that old 1950’s ditty about “the future’s not ours to see.”   Now, some 60 years later, the future really is ours to see.  Following the Agricultural and Industrial Revolutions we are now in the midst of an Informational or “E” Revolution. It is the most kinetic and dramatic rate of sustained technical progress ever known. Computers enable us to create new ways to live, work and dream.  Yeah, the future can still be a crap shoot, given the nasty problems we are all too familiar with (climate change, seemingly endless wars, a fading middle class, corrupt politicians, etc.).  But for now, let us take some time to consider some of the wonderful changes occurring soon, to wit: 

Drinkable water has been difficult to get for much of the world for centuries.  Now we have something called The Drinkable Book.  It’s a manual that provides safe water. The book educates the user and provides filters (wood pulp pages) which eliminate bacteria and waterborne diseases from drinking water with the use of low levels of silver nano-particles.  One filter page can clean up to 26 gallons of clean, drinkable water and each book (it looks to be about 8 inches thick with overall dimensions of 8 by 11 inches) can provide a user with up to four years of clean water! The silver particles cost pennies.  Global distribution is set for mid-2016.  Contact info@waterislife.com for more.

Move over Wi-Fi.  Li-Fi is here.  According to a recent article by Pavlos Manousiadis et al from Scotland’s University of St. Andrews appearing in ScienceAlert “…your future Internet could come through your lightbulb.”  Li-Fi is visible light communications (VLC) which rapidly modulates the intensity of a light to encode data as binary zeroes and ones.  It is a form of wireless technology that transmits much faster than Wi-Fi.  How fast?  According to the article, in 2014 scientists in a number of industrial locations in Tallinn, Estonia were able to transmit data at 1 GB per second-- about 100 times faster than current average Wi-Fi speeds.  Yes—100 times faster.

According to ScienceAlert, “Li-Fi was invented by Harald Hass at the University of Edinburgh in 2010.  He demonstrated that by flickering the light from a single LED, he could transmit more data than a cellular tower.”   He also noted that because light can’t pass through walls, Li-Fi is much more secure than Wi-Fi and “also means there’s less interference between devices.”  Further, it can use existing power lines as LED lighting so no new infrastructure is needed.

Numerous wireless tech sources have pointed out that in approximately 5 years, due to the mind-boggling growth of mobile devices as well as the oft-ballyhooed The Internet of Things (computerized fridges, stoves, beds, toilets, etc.), Wi-Fi will be overwhelmed. Radio and microwave frequencies simply cannot provide the additional space required for exponential growth.  In addition, Wi-Fi also struggles with electromagnetic interference.  All those wandering souls trying to find their city connection will easily find another wireless source--LiFi.

      

This writer cannot predict how soon Li-Fi will be widely available but several companies (including PureLiFi in Scotland and Oledcomm from France) are already offering VLC products. Of course Wi-Fi infrastructure is huge. Removing it will not  happen rapidly.  However, based on an admittedly early and cursory glance at the data, it is this writer’s bet that it will be largely available by 2025 or less.

Haas said it best: “In the future we will not only have 14 billion light bulbs, we may have 14 billion Li-Fi's deployed for a cleaner, greater and even brighter future.”

Arguably, the most important meeting of humans ever convened will begin on February 11-12, 2016 in Washington D.C.   It will be an international summit sponsored by The National Academies of Sciences, Engineering and Medicine to determine “…the potential use of human gene-editing technologies, their use in bio-medical research and medicine-including human germ line editing – and the clinical, ethical, legal and social implications of their use.”   Research on the nature of all life has seen exponential growth since the cloning of the first sheep (Dolly) and the successful mapping of DNA some 30 years ago.  Some call this new era The Age of the Red Pen—a reference to the ability to remove or introduce individual genes.  It is now easy to edit the genomes of plants, animals and humans.

Nature magazine reported in December about the first non-genetically modified (non-GM) crop of oil-seed rape that is herbicide resistant; no gene was taken from a different kind of organism or plant. This is an example of mutagenesis (using some of the plant’s own genes) and may be a means to escape the long and expensive efforts to meet current GM regulations.  Mutagenesis is also much more precise in gene selection than earlier modification efforts.  By 2050, the UN predicts that we will have a net increase of 2 billion people to feed and a new breed of plant editing may well be crucial.  So will increasing the availability of animal protein.  Pig farmers are awaiting the potential eradication of African swine fever by using the selective immunity provided by the genes of warthogs (same family).

According to Wikipedia, the advent of CRISPR (clustered, regularly interspersed-short palindromic repeats) in 2012 allowed researchers to quickly change the DNA of nearly any organism, including humans.  Research with mice, rats and monkeys have shown some success correcting cataract mutations, and correcting a defect with cystic fibrosis.  Money is flowing. click here The MIT Technological Review noted that in November a company named Editas raised $43 million in venture capital to use CRISPR technologies against a broad range of diseases.  Wonderful.  But there is a raging worldwide argument about editing the human germ line. It is one thing to prevent diseases from being passed on, but do we really want to have the ability to choose those genes that will insure the arrival of designer babies? Or alter the genomes of healthy embryos?   ARE WE GOING TO PLAY AT BEING GOD?