Neon Leon: 2018

Those he commands move only in command,
Nothing in love. Now does he feel his title
Hang loose about him, like a giant’s robe
Upon a dwarfish thief. --William Shakespeare

The text is in the final act of the old bard's timeless play, Macbeth. It is spoken by one of the nobles who has turned on their murderous, autocratic king and killed him after about three years in power.

Over the centuries other kings and would-be- kings have been compared to the King of Scots because he stands as a classic example of a flawed man--a man with a lust for power who is morally weak and has a selective perception of the world around him.

So, what the hell, let's give it a shot---how does President Trump compare to Macbeth? Are those classic flaws present in our president? What have we learned about the man is his nearly two year reign?

My dutiful slog through Trump Land has sought to clarify the dramatic changes in our culture and politics after Trump became president; changes which are altering the very essence of who we are as Americans and as citizens of the world.

Change is part of our national DNA, of course, and we can proudly point to many positive legislative changes over the years (think civil rights, judicial reforms and programs to assist the elderly and sick) while continuing to provide a model of decency and democracy for the whole world.

However, many of the changes brought and sought by our current administration are seen by many, including this writer, as a collective step backwards from what we have achieved.

It has been a period of all things Trump, all the time. Trump and his minions are at the center of a never ending news cycle replete with oodles of polls and investigative journalism in print, broadcast and social media.

What have we learned from all this reporting?

(1) His popularity has been remarkably constant, hovering around 40 percent since day one.

(2) We are indeed a deeply divided nation of two tribes. While there is considerable differences about exactly who is a typical Trumpian, a wealth of data collected in the last 2 years suggests that many in his base of supporters are largely rural, white, older males without a college degree.
Additionally, many harbor strong racist tendencies as shown here:

Trump and his team were first to realize (correctly) that many people (especially in rural areas) had lost faith in Dems and the GOP. Numerous polls revealed that those folks felt powerless or simply ignored. Neither party seemed to have an answer to the loss of jobs to globalization and the long decline in hourly pay for those still working. Trump became their leader because he spoke directly to their fears about immigrants, globalism and terrorism with simplistically worded stump speeches centered around Regan's old saw, "Let's Make America Great Again."

(3) Further, we learned that his base tends to dismiss any news that is not gleaned from Facebook, Fox News or hundreds of far-right, wild and woolly websites such as InfoWars, Western Journalism, National Report, etc. Her's my list of fake news sites (Scroll down from top of blog to mid-page) and here is Wikipedia's much longer list. (Many of those websites have since been removed from media platforms such as Google, Alphabet and Twitter, after Charlottesville and the ensuing multiple revelations of Russian meddling in the election.) Facebook has purged some 800 accounts to date.

(4) The other tribe (a coalition of democrats and independents) is personified by where they live also. Geographical polling has established that Trump's liberal detractors tend to be centered in larger cities and suburbs. Other tribal aspects: They are younger and often possess college diplomas or hi-tech training. Further, many also tend to be more supportive of minorities and get their news and info from historic sources such as The N. Y. Times, The Washington Post, Wall Street Journal, etc., as well as online sources like BuzzFeed, Daily Kos, Huffington Post.

(6) Many Trumpians tend to identify with "The Strong Man" or authoritarian type of government. Trump has made no secret of his stated admiration for men with blood on their hands such as Putin, Sisi , Erdowan, Duterte and Kim Jong-un. (Nor are Trumpians alone in their zeal for a populist strong man. Many European countries are also beginning to favor autocratic rule in reaction to globalization and immigration issues.)

However, dozens of data sources with a highly successful track record consistently report that the majority of Americans still embrace multiculturalism and the major tenets of democratic rule. And lest we forget, Clinton had 3 million more voters than Trump.

THE TRUMP REPORT CARD

First, let's take a squint at what The Trump Administration is proud of accomplishing--tax cuts, the appointment of Brett Kavanaugh to the supreme court, new immigration laws, new trade agreements and the lowest unemployment rate (3.5 %) in decades. An impressive list indeed until you take into consideration the following:

According to the Congressional Budget Office, the Government Accounting Office, the Internal Revenue Service and the nonpartisan Tax Foundation,  the 2017 Trump tax reform gave 83 percent of the tax cuts to the richest 1 percent of the people, while increasing our debt by a staggering 1 1/2 trillion bucks within ten years, which most economists say is simply not sustainable.

Not to worry folks! Trump is also considering--- wait for it---a second tax cut! In July, Trump told Fox News this: "We’re doing a phase two. We’ll be doing it probably in October, maybe a little sooner than that...One of the things we’re thinking about bringing the 21 percent [tax rate for corporations] down to 20. And then, for the most part, the rest of it would go to the middle class. It is a great stimulus."

More about that later, but for now, let's stick with the current tax cuts. According to an analysis from the Tax Policy Center, the bill increases after-tax income for the middle class by an average of 2.2 percent. But here's the catch 22--the tax cut for individuals will slowly decrease over time and will disappear completely in 2025. That sunset provision will, of course, insure that corporate taxes will be permanent.  The result will be a tax increase in 2027 for more than half of all Americans according to the Tax Policy Center.

The Republicans forecast that all those trillions of corporate profits stashed in various offshore tax havens would return to America and be used to bolster wages, provide money for research and development, and boost job creation. This has not happened. Instead, the bucks primarily went to stock buybacks for corporations and stockholders. The wage increases took the form of one-time bonuses averaging $1000.

It is true that lately, blue collar workers have indeed began to see some small wage increases.  Last month, The Washington Post released a report about those wages thusly: "The Trump administration...points to a jump in optimism about the economy, especially among manufacturers and blue-collar workers, and robust business investment as...signs of improvement. 'Small towns and rural America are finally winning a little, said Mark Muro, a senior fellow at Brookings. [However] very little of the favorable economic shift likely owes to President Trump's erratic flailing and bluster. [In reality]
the present surge is a continuation of gradual economic improvement that not only began during the Obama years but directly continues trends in the last year of the previous administration.' The economy has added fewer jobs per month, on average, than it did during President Barack Obama's second term."

And there are problems with the ballyhooed low unemployment rate, to wit:  “The 3.7 percent unemployment is definitely exciting, but it’s not the full story,” said Martha Gimbel, research director at Indeed.com’s Hiring Lab. “Part of what we all care about is not just the low rate of unemployment, but that people are employed in good jobs and...can get the hours they really want.”  Gimbel pointed out that the number of workers employed part-time who want a full-time job actually rose in September. The Labor Department noted there are 4.6 million Americans who are involuntary part-time workers, compared with 3.9 million in 2006 and less than 3.2 million in 2000.

Further, the standard method of calculating unemployment rates (known as U3) is deeply flawed, as is noted here. The real unemployment rate (U-6) is a broader definition of unemployment than the official unemployment rate (U-3). In September 2018, it was 7.5 percent.

Trump has pointed to some increase in the manufacturing sector, but Scott Paul, president of The Alliance for American Manufacturing, recently said “There are manufacturing jobs available right now, but young people have moved on. An entire generation of Americans has forgotten about manufacturing as a career path.”

In mid September, Bloomberg revealed that Americans have lost faith in the GOP tax cut by a measure of 2 to 1.

As for Kavanaugh's appointment, Trump will surely gain considerable kudos from the GOP, but I also note that a new CNN poll shows that 51 percent of respondents do not support Brett Kavanaugh’s confirmation to the Supreme Court.

Nor is the Kavanaugh saga completely over, as reported here, Russ Feingold, former democratic Senator now running for the Senate, intends to bring charges against the new judge for repeatedly lying under oath while working in the Bush White house.

Regarding the new NAFTA deal (now known as USMCA) there are many features which could prove advantageous to many Americans, including more American made parts for carmakers and a slight increase in the export of dairy products (mostly in powdered forms). But the deal is far from done. In the US, administration officials anticipate a raucous political battle to win congressional approval, especially if the Dems gain control of the house in November. And ratification by Mexico's new Congress is not guaranteed either, while Canada is in the throes of a contentious federal election also. Despite Trump's rants about Canadian "rip-offs" the current trade balance is dead even--for every $1 of imports, the US exports to Canada goods worth 94 cents, according to the US Department of Trade and Commerce.

Trump's newly imposed tariffs are not faring well in the heartland either. In a recent issue of Farm Futures, members were asked their opinions on Trump's actions: 75.3 percent said they voted for Trump in the 2016 election, and 40 percent believe that the president has done permanent damage to agriculture. And the outspoken GOP Senator Rand Paul has tweeted this. "Tariffs are taxes that punish American consumers and producers. If tariffs punish farmers, the answer is not welfare for farmers--the answer is remove the tariffs."

Of course, this critique of mine is not exactly news for my readers (unless they are just emerging from a long coma). However it is not just the failing politics or legislation alone that is truly important. It is also critical to understand that this man and his family are moral failures in the deepest sense of the world. Ditto for much of the administration and congressional lackeys who have been all too eager to follow a man that they had denounced with cries of "unfit for office", "an egotistical blowhard" and "a big phony" just two years earlier.

Further, the degree of corruption that has been revealed within his administration is unmatched in American history. I listed the details of the flagrant use of power by cabinet and department heads when I filed a blog on these people last April (View here).

Robert Mueller's long awaited report to Congress will soon be completed, and it is my considered belief that a whole bunch of Trumpians will be facing trials in civil and criminal courts for years, despite the herculean effort by an army of Trump's lawyers to kill the report.

Mueller has granted or offered immunity to a growing number of of former Trumpians including: Michael Cohen, General Flynn, Paul Manafort, and long time Trump Organization chief financial officer, Allen Weisselberg.

This Trumpian choir has been singing for months to Mueller's investigative team, with additional voices provided by David Pecker (of National Enquirer fame) as well as business partners Elliott Broidy and George Nader who have been charged with violations of the U.S. Foreign Agents Registration Act while seeking to alter American policy to Qatar. The Associated Press has unearthed a cache of damning emails between the two, including summaries written by Brody of two meetings he had with Trump.

In a rare peek into GOP fears about the midterms, Axios Media (a non partisan news and information company) recently acquired a report which was prepared for Republicans eyes only. Here's a verbatim list of their deepest fears:

President Trump’s tax returns

Trump family businesses — and whether they comply with the Constitution's emoluments clause, including the Chinese trademark grant to the Trump Organization

Trump's dealings with Russia, including the president's preparation for his meeting with Putin

The payment to Stormy Daniels

James Comey's firing

Trump's firing of U.S. attorneys

Trump's proposed transgender ban for the military

Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin's business dealings

Cabinet secretary travel, office expenses, and other misused perks

Discussion of classified information at Mar-a-Lago

Jared Kushner's ethics law compliance

Dismissal of members of the EPA board of scientific counselors

The travel ban on Muslims, taking immigrant children away from parents

Family separation policy for illegal immigrants

Hurricane response in Puerto Rico

Election security and hacking attempts

White House security clearances

Axios noted that the report (actually a spreadsheet) "...catalogs more than 100 formal requests from House Democrats this Congress, spanning nearly every committee[and]includes requests for administration officials to be grilled by committee staff, requests for hearings to obtain sworn testimony, efforts to seize communications about controversial policies and personnel decisions, and subpoena threats."

In my opinion, defending all of these perfectly legal inquiries would suck up all of the time and energy of the The White House in order to defend Trump, especially if the Dems rip away his partisan, protective shield by flipping the house in November.

Is Trump Really The Greatest Liar Of All Time?  Well, he's sure got my vote. In fact, Trump has been lying his whole life. But unlike other politicians, he doesn't try to spin his lies into an alternate "truth." Nah, he just keeps lying, reaching a historic high of over 5,000 documented fibs, half-truths and bald faced lies in the past 600 days of his presidency, according to the Washington Post's Fact Checker which you can try to get through all of them right here.

Here are some of my faves:

PEOPLE WHO WATCHED TRUMP'S INAUGURAL ADDRESS

"The overall audience, was I think, the biggest ever to watch an inauguration address, which was a great thing."

Not. Forest Service Videos of Obama's and Trump' inaugurals show a great sea of blank space in the Washington Mall for Trump whereas Obama's was wall to wall people as far as the eye could see. Politifact said this: "Even including TV watchers, Trump trailed several prior presidents. He falls into 5th place since 1969, behind Obama in 2009, Nixon in 1973, Carter in 1977 and the high-water mark of Reagan in 1981."

HILLARY CLINTON WON THE POPULAR VOTE BECAUSE OF FRAUD

Trump has said some version of that one numerous times, but his accusation that millions of Clinton voters were taken by (unseen) buses to some mysterious polling sites is a hoot indeed.

FLYNN DIDN'T DO ANYTHING WRONG

Uh, he plead guilty to lying to the FBI about his meetings with Russians, Donald.

"LOOK WHAT'S HAPPENING LAST NIGHT IN SWEDEN"

At a rally in defense of his (then) immigrant travel ban, Trump said: "We've got to keep our country safe--you look at what's happening in Sweden last night. Sweden! Who would believe this?" (He was alluding to a phony terrorist attack on the previous evening.)

Actually nothing really happened on the night in question except, according to Swedish papers,  "an alleged drunken driver, an avalanche warning and a famous singer having technical problems in rehearsal."

AMERICA PAYS THE MOST IN TAXES

Nope. According to the Tax Policy Center "among OECD countries, only Korea, Chile, Mexico, and Ireland collected less than the United States as a percentage of GDP. In the same vein, Trump's statement (prior to the passage of new tax cuts) that "Tax reform will cost me a fortune" is bogus. An NBC analysis found "it would personally save the president $20 million. His family was estimated to save more than $1 billion based on his reported wealth and his 2005 tax return, the only publicly available return."

The biggest lie of them all?  “I started out in Brooklyn. My father gave me a very small loan of a million dollars in 1975. I payed him back with interest." That gem, often repeated in some form by Trump during his presidential run, is not true. The loan was over $60 million, at least, and much of it was never repaid. Earlier this month, The New York Times published a blockbuster investigation that showed Trump has received $413 million dollars (in today’s money) from his father, Fred. The investigation also uncovered “instances of outright fraud,” among other “dubious” tax schemes.

Trump brought to The White House a lifetime of scandals and deceit in tow: sexual scandals, housing and racial discrimination charges, four bankruptcies, a long history of stiffing thousands of  laborers and contractors, etc. Here's a partial rundown of Trump's nefarious deeds. A note of caution here--you may need a hot shower after reading it.

Many wags and pundits have spoken about Trump's threat to our constitution and to democracy in general. Numerous call for his impeachment have been heard far and wide. Many, including me, have warned of the possibility of a new fascist state emerging from his reign.

However, I have come to believe that the US Constitution, the Bill of Rights and the work of some 3,000 civil servants in the Senior Executive Service (SES) (who really run the federal government) has insured that our system of checks and balances is working as designed.

Critically, the American people have risen to resist the Trump administration in unprecedented numbers. It is important to note that the largest protest in American history occurred the day after Trump's inauguration, when 3 million protestors marched in the streets of the capital. They also turned to the streets in every state in America as well as many countries around the world.

Since that time, a sort of Anti-Trump Industrial Complex has emerged with a passion that rivals the Civil Rights and Vietnam eras. Well funded, new progressive groups such as Resist  click here and  The Indivisible Project  click here have blossomed into a mega force with thousands of chapters fighting Trump's agenda.

So, how does it all end? Here's my take:

Trump will continue to be Trump. He will continue to lie several times a day, maintaining his indifference to facts while flinging red meat to his base (the media is the enemy of the state, climate change is a hoax, illegal immigrants are coming to get you, etc.).

When Mueller finishes his investigation into Russian influence by the end of the year, Trump and others in his past and present orbit may well be charged with criminal conduct. Mueller has also tasked other investigators to appraise possible criminal charges for acts that his team unearthed, but were not within the purview of his Russian probe.

However, whether a sitting president can be indicted is hotly contested by legal experts. If Trump or any of his associates can be indicted for federal crimes, then courts and juries can render decisions about guilt or innocence. But if a sitting president can't be charged, then impeachment proceedings may occur, although the possibility of a successful impeachment is very low, given the unlikely cooperation of the Republican controlled House of Representatives, as well as the constitutional requirement of a 2/3 majority vote in the Senate.

The final decision is, of course, in the hands of voters who, as the old saying goes, could "throw the bums out."

Existing law stipulates that Trump can pardon those accused of committing federal crimes (which he has done seven times to date) but he cannot issue pardons for impeachment, civil action, or state crimes. In fact, some states are already set to bring charges against Trump and others on tax fraud, money laundering, conspiracy, loan fraud, mortgage fraud, witness tampering and obstruction of justice.

In addition, even with a successful takeover of the house in November, the wheels of justice in foggy bottom have always moved very slowly, so Trump may last until 2020.

I suppose there is even a remote chance that Trump is elected again, but I really doubt it because of his strong disapproval ratings, and the likely failure of much of his agenda because of the highly anticipated increase of Dems in Congress.

It is my belief that the ugly and bizarre truths about Donald J. Trump will eventually be revealed, even to his most ardent fans. He will be found guilty of many charges, in the courts of law and in the court of popular opinion. And, the Republican lemmings who followed this man faithfully, despite his many assaults on the very foundations of this democracy, will find themselves in the political wilderness for many years to come.

The comparison to Macbeth yields a simple, historical truth--tyrants, bullys and despots are not loved. They lived their lives without a moral compass to guide them. Their followers substitute love with a rigid ideology based on ignorance. That state of affairs lasts for a short time, but people eventually recoil at these egotistical maniacs who are immune to the suffering of others.

After Trumpians awaken from their phony dream and after Trump's name is torn from tall buildings in the far reaches of his kingdom, our children will demand to know how this wicked and cruel brute became our president.

Editor's note: Next blog will be posted on November 14th.