Mill, a famous English philosopher and economist, was responding to the dramatic changes to the labor market in the early days of the Industrial Revolution. History is replete with examples of a constantly changing labor force which successfully evolved to meet the demands of change in the marketplace. However, this comforting notion that new jobs will ALWAYS be available, in my opinion, is no longer a safe bet at all. The exponential growth in artificial intelligence (AI) and robots will replace the jobs of millions of people, and it is happening far, far faster than most people are aware of.
 |
| Aquatic Robot Penguins |
 |
| Chinese Waiters |
 |
| Carl The Bartender |
 |
| Toyota's Musicians |
 |
| Source: Business Insider |
Consider just a few of the numerous reports about the future of jobs: (1) Nearly half of American jobs, 47 percent, are at risk of being automated over the next two decades, according to a 2013 study by Oxford University's Department of Engineering. (2) More recently, reported here A British newspaper, The Telegraph, said: Bank of America Merrill Lynch predicted that by 2025 the “annual creative disruption impact” from AI could amount to $14 trillion-33 trillion, including a $9 trillion reduction in employment costs thanks to AI-enabled automation of knowledge work; cost reductions of $8 trillion in manufacturing and health care; and $2 trillion in efficiency gains from the deployment of self-driving cars and drones. The McKinsey Global Institute, a think-tank, says AI is contributing to a transformation of society “happening ten times faster and at 300 times the scale, or roughly 3,000 times the impact” of the Industrial Revolution. (3) Around one-in-11 vacancies currently being advertised are likely to be obsolete by 2035, according to calculations from jobs website Adzuna here .
Technology giants are buying AI startups in a frenzy of acquisitions, mimicking the past and ongoing mergers of car makers, computer software companies and 3D printing applications (the subject of my last posting). In addition, the push to poach AI talent from colleges and hi-tech companies continues unabated. In 2015 a record $8.5 billion was spent on AI companies, nearly four times as much as in 2010, according to Quid, a data-analysis company. The number of investment rounds in AI companies in 2015 was 16% up on the year before, when for the technology sector as a whole declined by 3%.
Once again, the arguments for and against the rise of the machines are prevalent in the media. Will AI make millions of workers redundant, causing inequality and unrest or will millions of new jobs be created by this new technology? Martin Ford, profiled here the author of two best selling books on the dangers of automation, is troubled that middle-class jobs will disappear , economic mobility will end and a wealthy plutocracy could “shut itself away in gated communities or in elite cities, perhaps guarded by autonomous military robots and drones”. Similar concerns of other experts were revealed in the May 9, 2016 issue of Economist magazine, to wit “The development of full artificial intelligence could spell the end of the human race,” Stephen Hawking warns. Elon Musk fears that the development of...AI may be the biggest existential threat humanity faces. Bill Gates urges people to beware of it."
Those negative views are largely based on predictions about the state of AI in forty years or more. They are educated guesses alright, but after too many bleary hours of research, it appears to this writer that a clear majority of opinions are squarely in the positive camp, at least for the next two decades or so.
According to The Economist magazine report published on August 26, 2017, "Many big tech companies employ, mostly through outsourcing firms, thousands of people who police the firms’ own services and control quality. Google [reportedly]....has an army of 10,000 “raters” who, among other things, look at YouTube videos or test new services. Microsoft operates something called a Universal Human Relevance System, which handles millions of micro-tasks each month, such as checking the results of its search algorithms."
"These numbers are likely to rise...[partially due] to an increasing demand for “content moderation”. A new law in Germany will require social media to remove any content that is illegal...such as Holocaust denial, within 24 hours or face hefty fines. Facebook has announced that it will increase the number of its moderators globally, from 4,500 to 7,500."
"AI will eliminate some forms of this digital labor...[but] AI will also create demand for other types of digital work. The technology may use a lot of computing power and fancy mathematics, but it also relies on data distilled by humans. For autonomous cars to recognize road signs and pedestrians, algorithms must be trained by feeding them lots of video showing both. That footage needs to be manually “tagged”, meaning that road signs and pedestrians have to be marked as such. This labeling already keeps thousands busy. Once an algorithm is put to work, humans must check whether it does a good job and give feedback to improve it. A service offered by CrowdFlower...is an example of what is called “human in the loop.” Digital workers classify e-mail queries from consumers, for instance, by content [or] sentiment...These data are fed through an algorithm, which can handle most of the queries. But questions with no simple answer are...routed through humans.You might expect humans to be taken out of the loop as algorithms improve. But this is unlikely to happen soon, if ever, says Mary Gray, who works for Microsoft’s research arm. Algorithms may eventually become clever enough to handle some tasks on their own and to learn by themselves. (my emphasis) But consumers and companies will also expect ever-smarter AI services: digital assistants such as Amazon’s Alexa and Microsoft’s Cortana will have to answer more complex questions. Humans will still...train algorithms and handle exceptions."
"But many fear that the human cloud will create a global digital proletariat. Sarah Roberts of the University of California, Los Angeles, found that content moderators often suffer from burnout after checking...social-media content for extended periods. Mark Graham of the University of Oxford concludes that platforms for online work do indeed offer new sources of income for many, particularly in poor countries, but that these services also drive down wages. So governments need to be careful when designing big digital-labor programmes—as Kenya has done, hoping to train more than 1m people for online jobs."
We have already seen the successful use of an AI technique called “deep learning" (which allows systems to improve by crunching lots of examples instead of programming from scratch), to block spam, power search engines, recognize voice requests, even (as described in this site numerous times) control autonomous cars, etc.
Computers are already better than humans at chess and the TV show Jeopardy! But I find it especially notable the results of a man versus machine Go (an ancient board game considered far more difficult than chess) contest which occurred in 2014 when DeepMind, an AI company bought by Google , challenged Go master Lee Sedol (a world master of Go) to a five-game match.
The match, played before huge crowds in Seoul and streamed to millions, was won by the computer, four games to one. The machine, which had learned from a mixture of watching humans play and playing against itself, was using strategies humans had clearly not seen while quickly learning from it's own mistakes. The current record stands at 60 to 0 for AlphaGo.
OK, so let's get real here and focus on what jobs will be most likely to disappear in the very near future. Kiplinger Reports has compiled this list of jobs which will disappear in the next ten years: Door-to-Door Sales Worker, Textile Machine Worker, Floral Designer, Sewing Machine Operator, Print Binding and Finishing Worker, Tailor, Upholsterer, Photo Processor,Metal and Plastic Plating and Coating Machine Operator, Craft Artist.
Microsoft's online news has provided a slide show of "21 jobs where robots are already replacing humans." They are: Chef, factory worker, surgeon, retail sales associate, security guard, shepherd, farmer, pharmacist, food delivery driver, journalist (GASP!), soldier, receptionist, telephone salesperson, construction worker, accountant, tour guide, mixologist, bartender, librarian, hospital administrator.
In addition, I highly recommend my readers to check out YouTube and type in 8 Advanced Animal Robots to see videos of Butterflies, Dragonflies, Aqua Penguin, Cheetahs, Kangaroos, etc. and their astonishing ability to mimic their namesakes behavior.
In 1997, $2,000 of neural computer chips using only modest parallel processing could perform around 2 billion calculations per second.... This capacity will double every twelve months. Thus by the year 2020, it will have doubled about twenty-three times, resulting in a speed of about 20 million billion neural connection calculations per second, which is equal to the human brain.---
Ray Kurzweil, The Age of Spiritual Machines
I confess I have no idea what an algorithm is. Nor do I have the ability to write computer code and I certainly can't compete with the rapidly growing expertise of robots which can work 24 hours straight with no vacations or salary. In fact, writers and journalists are already being replaced, especially in the fields of sports and finance.
How about a preview of which jobs will be "hot" in ten years?Fastcompany.com says the following jobs will be created:
Personal Worker Brand Coaches And Managers
“We’re predicting that nearly 25% of today’s full-time employees will be working ‘on demand,’” says Graeme Codrington, at TomorrowToday.com. Codrington, referring to the increasing preference of companies to hire freelancers for short contracts when the need arises...and notes that almost any job that can be done at a digital distance will be attractive for companies to opt for freelancers over staff, even...“top-end professionals who can solve significant problems for companies.”
The demand for these...workers will result in an increased need for individuals...[who]...will need a new set of skills related to “self-management, self-promotion, relentless marketing, administration, and self-development.”
Professional Triber
Related to Codrington’s personal worker brand coaches and managers will be the role of ...the “professional triber,” says Joe Tankersley, a futurist and strategic designer at Unique Visions. [He] says that as more companies rely on on-demand workers, the role of a professional triber–a freelance professional manager that specializes in putting teams together for very specific projects–will be in demand.
Freelance Professors
Tankersley...believes that by 2025, there will be a large need for freelance professors [in]... teaching [within]...the on-demand realm. “The continued growth of online courses and the introduction of alternative accreditations will spawn a growth in freelance or independent professors. By 2025 all you need to start your own university is a great online teaching style, course materials, and marketing plan.”
Urban Farmers
The 21st century may see the return of local farming due to the number of people living in urban areas and the increasing awareness of the detrimental environmental impacts of industrial farming. “Small artisan farmers will...to grow in numbers as urban farming becomes a small but significant part of the food chain,” says Tankersley, [They will] teach and assist amateur urban farmers [aiming for]...a healthier and more eco-conscious life."
End-Of-Life Planner
By the year 2100, the planet is predicted to have another 4 billion inhabitants...By 2025, the World Health Organization predicts that 63% of the global population will live to over the age of 65–some well past their centenary. As the average age continues to get older, Tankersley says end-of-life planning will become a hot job sector by 2025.
Senior Carer
The aging population will [affect]...world economies in the next decade, agrees Codrington, and a workforce built around caring for the aging population will [create]...a demand for employees well outstripping the supply of workers trained in the field. Life expectancy is increasing by about 1.5 days a week...and more than half of all the people who have ever turned 80 are still alive. In countries with socialized health care, the government provides personal care for these people, and is going to need more and more carers in the next few decades. By 2025, what is today mainly physical care will have extended to psychological care as well.”
Remote Health Care Specialist
Unsurprisingly...there will be a need for people who can be remote health care specialists to offload some of the work of local or regional health care specialists who need to commit their time to caring for patients with more urgent diseases. Interestingly, Codrington believes that by 2025, the highest-paying jobs in this field will all be held by Apple employees. “There is no doubt that with their iOS 8 released Health app and their integration of...myriad health apps with the Apple Watch, Apple ...[is]] likely to be the world’s leading remote and proactive health care company by 2025.”
Neuro-Implant Technicians
“Our knowledge of the brain is developing [exponentially] faster than almost any scientific field at the moment... says Codrington. “We will need a vast range of disciplines to be focused on neurosciences, including brain surgeons, neuro-augmentation and implant technicians and developers, brain backup engineers, real-time MRI scanners and interpreters, and neuro-robotic engineers to build mind-controlled robots and machines.”
Smart-Home Handyperson
Codrington says the burgeoning Internet of Things industry, which is expected to be a $19 trillion market by 2020, will create a number of new jobs...for technically adept handymen and women. Specifically, Codrington believes there will be a huge market for smart-home installers. “It might not be door to door anymore, but there is going to be plenty of work for those who can bring various aspects of the Internet of Things into our homes...”
Virtual Reality Experience Designer
John Danaher, a lecturer at NUI Galway’s School of Law and an expert in the philosophy of law and emerging technologies, has said "Part of the expansion of the Internet of Things into our homes will involve the increasing use of virtual reality for both work and play. Offices could become obsolete if you can just log in virtually from your home office and interact with your colleagues as if you were in the same room. Virtual reality will be as much a part of our lives as the Internet and our iPhones are today–and that means people who can design the best VR experiences will be in huge demand."
Sex Worker Coach
Danaher also believes that an increasingly hot job in the future may...be sex work. “Erotic labor may be a niche area for humans in the future,”...humans currently excel over robots in sex–which is a good thing, considering many people may be turning to sex work[as]...a lot of today’s jobs might be redundant by then. But Danaher says even in sex work, there will be robots and virtual reality devices that offer...sexual gratification too. That’s why he feels "there will be a need for sex worker coaches to train sex workers to compete with their digital counterparts."
3-D Printer Design Specialist
As noted in great detail in my last posting, 3-D printers have been paramount in the manufacturing and prototyping industries for years, but most consumers are currently not really eager to learn how to use the things. Danaher doesn’t believe this apathy...will dissipate by 2025, but he does believe [many]...will come to appreciate the advantages of 3-D...[and]... they’ll hire people to design and print their objects for them. “I’m not sure that these people will make much money, given that the designs will be easily copied and shared, but there may be a premium at the high end of the market. The rich will pay their own designers to create bespoke products for them. Just as companies already hire...designers, imagine having your own personal Jony Ive to design your 3-D-printed furniture.”
There are many problems with this list, including (as outlined in my series on future farming) the fact that inexpensive genetically modified foods are eaten daily by millions with little or no harmful effects according to legions of scientists. I also discussed The Internet of Everything in another post and most of the products involved now (and in the future) are sold with the technology already present. Personal care positions, are part time and low paying positions today and it's a good bet that trend will continue, unless one can learn new skill sets, but they will probably be used in the Remote Health Care positions. Many of the positions outlined are a continuation of part-time and occasional gigs so prevalent in the world's economy for many years. Few have the tenacity or energy to string them together to provide a well paying job, although sex workers may happily rise to the challenge.
Much of what this old writer learned in college a generation ago sufficed to provide a living for me. No longer. People will have to continually educate and train themselves their whole lives to meet the quickening pace of technology--that’s been obvious for a long time.
A special report by The Economist recently focused on how education must evolve to meet this profound change. Some excerpts: "A host of websites now offer courses...from user-experience design to project management to leadership. Some, like Udacity, charge by the course; others, like Lynda.com[affiliated with LinkedIn]...charge a monthly fee for access to all courses. (It is not difficult to imagine LinkedIn comparing the skill sets of its users against those required to apply for a particular job—and then offering users the courses necessary to fill the gaps.) Users and their potential employers sometimes find it difficult to tell which ones offer good value. More co-operation between government, training providers and employers over certification would help.
America and other developed countries should also put more emphasis on vocational and technical education, as Germany does, rather than encouraging everyone to go to university, says David Autor at MIT...[and] "apprenticeships, which typically involve five to seven years of training... don't make sense if the skills you need are changing every three to five years,” says James Bessen at the Boston University School of Law. So the traditional apprenticeship model will have to be tweaked. Community colleges are setting up all kinds of schemes that combine education with learning on the job, says Mr Bessen. For example, Siemens, a German industrial giant, has launched a four-year “earn and learn” programme for apprentices at its wind-turbine factory in Charlotte, North Carolina. Apprentices graduate with a degree in mechatronics from a local community college, certification from the local department of labor—and no student debt."
Finally, it may well become necessary to provide some form of welfare for the millions who simply do not have the smarts or the the means to find work in the decades to come. In my many years in blue collar work, I have rubbed elbows with hundreds of folks who worked hard every day, often in miserable conditions, to put food on the table and provide a place called home. Colleges and book larnin' were, for many, a bridge requiring too much intelligence to cross.
Further, many futurists envision a distant future in which AI and scientific advances will create a world in which work will
become moot. Positive alternatives to labor would become routine. Yeah, sounds wild alright, so let's see what is being done right now for those who will be "on the dole."
The special report by the Economist (link above) said:
"Concerns about AI and automation have also led to calls for a stronger safety net to protect people from labor-market disruption and help them switch to new jobs... many AI commentators support the idea of a universal basic income: a dramatic simplification of the welfare system that involves paying a fixed amount (say, $10,000 a year) to everyone, regardless of their situation, and doing away with all other welfare payments...Its chief merit, say its supporters, is that people who are not working, or are working part-time, are not penalized if they decide to work more, because their welfare payments do not decline as their incomes rise. It gives people more freedom to decide how many hours they wish to work, and might also encourage them to retrain by providing them with a small guaranteed income while they do so. Those who predict apocalyptic job destruction see it as a way to keep the consumer economy going and support the non-working population. If most jobs are automated away, an alternative mechanism for redistributing wealth will be needed."
"The idea enjoys broad support within the technology industry: Y Combinator, a startup incubator, is even funding a study of the idea in Oakland, California...The idea seems to appeal to techies...in part because of its simplicity and elegance (replacing existing welfare and tax systems...with a single line of computer code and...[the Utopian appeal.]"The Economist also noted that:
"Though it is an attractive idea in principle, the devil is in the details. A universal basic income that replaced existing welfare budgets would...Divide existing spending on social, pension and welfare schemes (excluding health care) equally, and each citizen would get a basic income of around $6,000 a year in America and $6,200 in Britain, for example. Compared with existing welfare schemes, that would reduce income for the poorest, while giving the rich money they do not need...Negative income taxes, or schemes such as earned-income tax credits, might be a...more practical approach."Which brings me to Mill's quote at the beginning of this piece. I remain hopeful that politicians will indeed look after those "disrupted by technology." But leaders like Donald Trump, who seek to bring the "lost" jobs back to their homelands are dead wrong. Those jobs simply will no longer exist.
"Many countries, notably Finland and the Netherlands, are planning to experiment with limited forms of basic income next year. [another concern]...is that a basic income could actually discourage some people from retraining...—why not play video games all day?...previous experiments with a basic income suggest that it encourages people to reduce their working hours slightly. Another problem?[it]is not compatible with open borders and free movement of workers[and]... it might attract lots of freeloaders from abroad and cause domestic taxpayers to flee as it benefits people in some countries more than others. [Finally]... Automation could erode the comparative advantage of much of the developing world...The risk is that automation could deny poorer countries the opportunity for economic development through industrialization."
No comments:
Post a Comment