Roadkill: The Mighty Internal Combustion Engine

"The hardest part of moving forward is not looking back" Unknown


Editor's note:  For reasons beyond my understanding, readers may find that using Google for links in this posting is best.

The future of human transport is going to be really wild; consider a couple of examples: Elon Musk, of Space X and Tesla Motors fame, started a new company, aptly named The Boring Company, about a year ago. In June, the company began boring a tunnel under Los Angeles which will eventually house a Hyper Loop System, capable of transporting people in enclosed capsules at 600 mph. Flying cars (sort of a cross between a helicopter and motorcycle) from at least four companies are scheduled to begin test flights next year. 

Clearly, these efforts will take many years to achieve reality, and the price tag for individual travelers will probably be exorbitant. Today, however, some of the new types of production cars are already transforming the auto industry, largely because our 100 year love affair with the internal combustion engine is dying. Horse powered buggies disappeared long ago and now the fossil fuel engines are destined for what could be the biggest scrap iron pile in history.  Our beloved jalopies, puddle jumpers, limos, ghetto cruisers, sleds, hot rods and rice rockets will always be part of a big collector's market.  But soon (predictions vary from 5 to 30 years) sleek new vehicles will begin to rely on electricity and hydrogen for power.   

For folks who are content with mass transportation (buses, trains, subways) in major urban areas, the types of autos available are probably a minor concern. However, for the millions of people in suburbia, exurbia and rural areas ( the smaller cities and towns which are far flung dots on "blue" highways), who must drive to work every day,  the need for efficient and inexpensive vehicles is paramount.

All these people, however,  share  a deep concern about the pollution (such as carbon dioxide and monoxide) belching from our tail pipes. Further, unless they have been living in a cave on Easter Island or in a bubble of ignorant bliss, people have long understood that these problems will only worsen if the world's population continues to grow by (according to Wikipedia) 83 million people every year.  In fact, within the last year, several countries have shown they want to kick gas and diesel cars to the curb in favor of cleaner cars, to wit:   

Britain: The U.K. has said it would ban sales of new gasoline and diesel cars starting in 2040. By 2050, all cars on the road will need to have zero emissions.

France:  Wants to end sales of  many fossil fueled cars by 2040 
After that date, automakers will only be allowed to sell cars that run on electricity or other cleaner power. Hybrid cars will also be permitted.

India: New Delhi has proclaimed that every vehicle sold in the country should be powered by electricity by 2030.

Norway: The government's transportation plan outlines a clear target: All new passenger cars and vans sold in 2025 should be zero-emission vehicles.

China:  Buys more electric cars than any other country, accounting for more than 40% of the electric cars sold in the world and more than double the number sold in the U.S., according to the International Energy Association (IEA).

The others: At least 9 other countries have electric car sales targets in place, according to the IEA.  Austria, Denmark, Germany, Ireland, Japan, the Netherlands, Portugal, Korea and Spain have set official targets for electric car sales. The United States doesn't have a federal policy, but at least eight states have set out goals.

The IEA report contains an alarming statistic that shows just how far many other countries have to go:
Globally, 95% of electric cars are sold in only 10 countries: China, the U.S., Japan, Canada, Norway, the U.K., France, Germany, the Netherlands and Sweden. report is here

It appears to this writer that we are at a tipping point in personal transportation.  The changes occurring now and in the immediate future are complex and large; many find it hard to understand what is really going on, so I will begin by taking small bites out of this "big apple" with a brief analysis of some of the more dominant new BEV (battery electric vehicles) produced.   (Later posts will center on driverless cars, hybrids and hydrogen powered vehicles.)
list is here Subcompact     
Fiat 500e 
MSRP: $32,995  MPG:  121 city--103 highway Seats 4  0-60 in 8.7
Mitsubishi i-MieV MSRP: $22,995  MPG: 121 city--102 highway
0-60 in 13.5
Smart For Two
MSRP:  $25,000 or $19,960 which includes $80/monthly battery rental.  MPG: 68 (average)  Seats 2  0-60 in 9.8
Hatchback
Chevrolet Bolt       
MSRP:  $37,495 MPG: 128 city--110 highway  Seats 4  0-60 in 6.5
Ford Focus EV
MSRP:  $29,120 MPG: 118 city--105 highway Seats 5 0-60 in 10.1
Hyundai Ioniq
MSRP:  $29,500  MPG: 136e  (combined)   Seats 5   0-60 in 8.0       Kia Soul
MSRP:  $31,950  MPG:  105e  (combined)  Seats 5  0-60 in 11.8
Nissan Leaf  
MSRP:  $30,680   MPG: 114e  (combined)  Seats 5  0-60 in 10.2     Volkswagen eGolf
MSRP:  $28,995  MPG:  116e (combined)  Seats 5  0-60 in 10.4
Luxury
BMW i3
MSRP:  $42,400  MPG: 118e (combined)  Seats 4  0-60 in 7.1 
Mercedes Benz S550e  MSRP: $39,900 MPG: 84e (combined)
0-60 in 7.9
Tesla Model S MSRP: $68,000  MPG:  104e  (combined) Seats 5  0-60 in 2.5SUV/minivan 
Tesla Model X
MSRP:  $88,000  MPG: 86-92e (combined)  Seats 5-7  0-60 in 2.9 Faraday Future FF91  Although this car does not meet my criteria for listing because there are none on the road at this time, (although orders are being taken on line)  I feel that this monster BEV will surpass any other vehicle in automotive history in so many ways, it had to make the cut.  The story is here   Here are some statistics:  MSRP:  $300,000  MPG:  None given, but will go 378 miles, fully charged. Seats 5.   0-60 in 2.39.  Top speed:  500 miles per hour. 1050 Horsepower.   1      

All models listed are subject to price reductions from state, local and dealer subsidies.  A further note: Every all-new Volvo model, released in 2019 and beyond, will be partially or fully electrified, as a hybrid or BEV.  2

As a measure of how serious manufacturers are consider this: Tesla invested $5 billion in its Nevada gigafactory—where they will make batteries for EVs.  Faraday, despite earlier funding losses, is building a $1 billion  production facility (also in Nevada), while Mercedes Benz is investing $740 million in a new battery factory in Kamenz, Germany.   3  

If your jaw is dropping or you feel like someone slipped you some electric kool aid, here is a more sobering take on electric vehicles:  (1) Even with EV sales doubling between 2013 and 2017, only 1 out of every 200 U.S. new vehicle acquisitions involves an electric vehicle. (2)  Not surprisingly, years of research have confirmed that electric cars are cleaner than those that rely on internal-combustion engines, but only if the power used to charge them is also clean. Electric cars really are greener in France than in China because France gets more than half its power from nuclear stations while China —which loves electric cars, about 80% of its electricity is derived from coal.

How much do people really care about  electrics? While there are few polls concerning popularity of electric cars by middle aged and older people per se, millennials have positive views. In a year old report  by Mena News Wire, research statistics indicate that "More than three quarters of millennials (76 percent) consider driving an eco-friendly car as the best choice to make their lives more environmentally friendly...the millennial demographic surveyed here has the potential to be hugely influential in determining the future of transport and sustainability." 

In summary, as in all human endeavor, there are no silver bullets or magical guarantees of success, especially in the automotive world.  Like countless others, I have experienced utter joy when I pushed  the pedal to the metal in glorious machines stuffed with big block engines. The internal combustion engine has had a glorious ride and will continue to be prevalent in areas like shipping and aviation for years.  But on the ground, electric cars will eventually provide more freedom as well as cheaper thrills. 

National governments will have to play an active role in providing mass availability for plug in facilities.  Oil companies are sure to resist any loss to the bottom dollar, and many jobs will be lost from the oil fields to the pump. We will all be on a bumpy road for some time, but hopefully, all life on earth will enjoy a cleaner home.