The Future of Food: Feast or Famine?

"Even the simplest of food is a gift." -- Laurie Colwin

Colwin (1944-1992) was an American writer and columnist for Gourmet magazine, and her quote succinctly expresses why, for so many people, their next meal will not be a matter of deciding what to eat; it is a question of whether they will have any food at all. Stories of famine and starvation have been seen on TV and other screens for so long, viewers have become enured of the subject. Tuning out is made easier, of course, by the astonishing array of food available to people in first world countries.  As an old farmer told me long ago, "They don't give a s..t,  cuz they ain't hungry." 

This posting will examine how well we are feeding the 7 billion people on the planet as well as the expected population of 10 billion in about 30 years (August 2016 United Nations report).  I will also report on how much food we waste and what is added to the food we buy at supermarkets.  

My next posting will focus on the inspiring efforts to feed the world by small farmers using Agroecolgy (the study of ecological processes applied to agricultural production systems), how Silicon Valley is becoming deeply involved in farming, and efforts to curb waste. I may stick my nose into the debate over organic foods and GMOs also.

The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization estimates that about 795 million people of the 7.3 billion people in the world, or one in nine, were suffering from chronic undernourishment in 2014-2016. Almost all the hungry people, 780 million, live in developing countries, representing 12.9 percent, or one in eight, of the population of developing countries.  In the USA, the percentage of U.S. households that were food insecure declined significantly in 2016 to 12.7 percent of U.S. households (15.8 million households, approximately one in eight) according to the non profit World Hunger Education Service.

There is some good news also-- the January 2016 UN Goals Report said "The world produces enough food to feed everyone. The principal problem is that many people in the world still do not have sufficient income to purchase (or land to grow) enough food or access to nutritious food...world agriculture produces 17 percent more calories per person today than it did 30 years ago, despite a 70 percent population increase." 

I still remember the large sign posted above the chow line in the Marine Corps boot camp in San Diego decades ago--TAKE ALL YOU WANT, EAT ALL YOU TAKE.  Similarly, as a child, I remember when my mother routinely issued this stern warning to my brother, sister and I: "You can't leave the table until you eat what's on your plate." My parents lived through the Great Depression and never forgot how food on the table was often very meager; a full stomach was truly a gift then.  

Two generations later, Americans now waste a hell of a lot of food (about 40 percent, according to the Natural Resources Defense Council (NRDC). The NRDC sadly notes click here how this waste creates methane gas, squanders energy sources (to make and transport the stuff) and does nothing to fill the stomachs of our hungry citizens.

The problem is not limited to the United States.  The NY Times published a report  a year ago from an English based, non profit called Waste and Resources Action program click here which detailed the alarming statistics about food waste world wide, including this:  "A third of all the food produced in the world is never consumed." 

One may quibble about the accuracy of all these numbers, but clearly, we have a nexus of issues (a warming climate, lack of   arable land, a growing population and the loss of fresh water resources) that must be resolved, before it is simply too late for too many.

What to do?  Perhaps a good start is to examine what we should and should not eat. The food in the developing world varies dramatically, but most still eat what their small farmers can produce and has historically proven adequate for needed calories unless crops are impacted by floods, drought or war.  The food in the developed world commonly is produced on huge commercial farms. Imported food allows many western countries to eat crops which are exotic or out of season at home. 

What makes the western world's (Europe, North America) diet unique is the prevalence of processed foods ( breakfast cereals, cheese, tinned vegetables, bread, savory snacks, meat products). In addition there are the "convenience foods", such as microwave or ready meals as well as soft drinks. The March 2016 issue of Time magazine published an analysis of  this trend click here noting that "Americans get less than 1 percent of their daily calories from vegetables."  Marketplace, which has recorded business and economic analysis for 800 public radio stations for 30 years, click here  has noted two astonishing numbers:  70 percent of the food we eat is processed and contains some 5000 hard to pronounce chemicals (used for long shelf life, taste and color enhancement, etc.).

Other than the few people who have been hiding in the deep woods or stranded on an island for years, most folks have known there is a lot of sugar and salt in our food.  Let's look at each separately. 
  
SPOONFULS OF SUGAR

Multiple national and world health organizations seem to agree that we should have a daily intake of about six spoons of sugar daily. We actually consume more than 22 teaspoons a day of added sugars (any added sugars of any of about 24 different types used in processing or preparation).  Research at the Harvard School of Public Health in 2012, for example, has tied sugary drinks to an epidemic of obesity in the United States. They reported "The average 12-ounce can of soda contains 10 teaspoons of sugar, and the average teenage boy consumes nearly three cans of sugary drinks a day. Is it any wonder that about two-thirds of Americans are now overweight or obese?  Obesity, in turn, raises the risk of type 2 diabetes, heart disease, arthritis and cancer. 

PASS (UP) THE SALT

Almost 80 percent of the salt in the American diet comes not from the salt shaker, but from processed or restaurant foods. According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), the average American on a 2,000-calorie-per-day diet devoured more than 3,400 mg of salt per day (mg/d). That’s substantially more than current dietary guidelines, which recommend that adults in general consume no more than 2,300 mg/d—about one teaspoon.
Meanwhile, studies have linked salty diets to high blood pressure, which increases the risk of heart attacks and strokes, the first and third leading causes of death in the United States.  

For the last 10 years, under growing pressure from food agencies and an increasingly aware public, many countries have began to wage a war against sugar, salt and "lifestyle ills." According to the USDA, "Some food companies are making progress, but the numbers are still too high."  In November 2014, the World Health Organization (WHO) organized, jointly with the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), adopted the Rome Declaration on Nutrition and the Framework for Action, which recommends "...a set of policy options and strategies to promote diversified, safe and healthy diets at all stages of life." WHO is helping countries to implement the commitments with the help of local and state food agencies. 

The fight has claimed some victories. There are now thousands of new farmers markets.  New land for farming is slowly becoming available in former industrial areas.  Educational programs abound in public and private sectors teaching how to grow food and cook it from scratch in your own kitchen.  I believe these victories are critical because we are in a fight for our lives.  

Food is really more than a means to fill our bellies.  Eleanor Roosevelt put it this way:  "The freedom of mankind, I contend, is the freedom to eat."